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Can someone explain to me, without using more financial words, the meaning of: "wrong-way bets", "to cover wrong-way bets", "outstanding futures contracts", "short positions", how buying open interest constitutes exiting short positions? Maybe then I can follow Stephen Stork's logic on my own... *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Which means that they need to "cover" their bet, by effectively selling back their position - at a loss, but at a smaller loss than if the price movement that caused the loss continued.
"short positions" are positions where the player has sold the asset (usually by borrowing it before, or via equivalent instruments), ie is betting on the price going down (the expectation is to be able to buy back the asset later for less).
I'm not sure exactly how "open interest" is defined, but I would imagine it's the number of offers officially put up on the market to buy a given asset at prices that are currently above market price (and are thus unfulfilled): for instance, if you give an order to your broker to buy 1,000 barrels at $150. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
So most traders bet that prices will go down, and thus wanted to earn money by selling oil with the intent to buy it back cheaper when prices go down. And now they are buying oil, to sell it later when prices go up, but the number of potential buyers is going down. Is that right?
Unfortunately, I still don't get why this means that "money is moving out of the market", and whether open interest holders are a subset of long position holders or a wider group... *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Also, open interest can differ widely from the amount traded in the spot market, but when open interest exceeds the spot volume by a lot, people are in for a lot of pain. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
Margin accounts are usually lines of credit to play the market and the required percentage of the owner´s actual cash varies with market conditions and size of account, so the regular players usually maintain funds there even when the margin is repaid. Something like a bank´s capital requirements. Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
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