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Sometimes, when there are too many technical (or buzz-)words with nebulous meaning, I just glaze over reading a financial text. So, I have to admit, in this diary, it's the Bloomberg wrong-way bet article.

Can someone explain to me, without using more financial words, the meaning of: "wrong-way bets", "to cover wrong-way bets", "outstanding futures contracts", "short positions", how buying open interest constitutes exiting short positions? Maybe then I can follow Stephen Stork's logic on my own...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jul 6th, 2008 at 05:16:59 AM EST
wrong way bet: means that players bought positions that will earn them money if prices move in one direction, but prices went the other way.

Which means that they need to "cover" their bet, by effectively selling back their position - at a loss, but at a smaller loss than if the price movement that caused the loss continued.

"short positions" are positions where the player has sold the asset (usually by borrowing it before, or via equivalent instruments), ie is betting on the price going down (the expectation is to be able to buy back the asset later for less).

I'm not sure exactly how "open interest" is defined, but I would imagine it's the number of offers officially put up on the market to buy a given asset at prices that are currently above market price (and are thus unfulfilled): for instance, if you give an order to your broker to buy 1,000 barrels at $150.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jul 6th, 2008 at 07:16:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and  'wrong way bet' probably has its origins in the betting man's 'each way bet' i.e. a bet on both a winner and/or a 'place' (say in the first three) with the pay out on the 'place' adjusted down accordingly by fractioning the odds at the time the bet was accepted.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Jul 6th, 2008 at 07:23:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Aaaah, so "interest" in "open interest" has nothing to do with fees, nor weith unsold oil, but means "would-like-to-buy"...

So most traders bet that prices will go down, and thus wanted to earn money by selling oil with the intent to buy it back cheaper when prices go down. And now they are buying oil, to sell it later when prices go up, but the number of potential buyers is going down. Is that right?

Unfortunately, I still don't get why this means that "money is moving out of the market", and whether open interest holders are a subset of long position holders or a wider group...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jul 6th, 2008 at 05:36:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, "open interest" is the number of contracts that have been traded. Each contract has a long (buyer) and a short (seller) side. If someone who is long enters a similar contract on the short side, the open interest is reduced. The amount of money in margin accounts (posted as collateral to be able to establish the short/long position) is roughly proportional to the notional value of the open interest. Therefore, when open interest goes down, people can take money out of their margin accounts.

Also, open interest can differ widely from the amount traded in the spot market, but when open interest exceeds the spot volume by a lot, people are in for a lot of pain.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 7th, 2008 at 05:50:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have never traded in commodities, but if they are anything like securities options, open interest is the total amount of transactions outstanding, un-covered, by self, or others, of all contracts, by  type + price + expiration date, in a given market, on a given moment.

Margin accounts are usually lines of credit to play the market and the required percentage of the owner´s actual cash varies with market conditions and size of account, so the regular players usually maintain funds there even when the margin is repaid.  Something like a bank´s capital requirements.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Tue Jul 8th, 2008 at 11:44:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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