Some other people would say that oil, along with wheat and some metals, remains more attractive than other investments in the financial markets. And we know that the people who lead these markets are financial institutions, the banks and the hedge funds. They are the leaders. So the paradox is that, consciously or unconsciously, the determination of the oil price has gone away from the producers to the financial sector. It went away from the oil people to the non-oil people.

So is there anything that could stop the oil price from rising in the coming year?

Yes, of course. A bubble has formed. We know one thing about bubbles, and that is that they burst. When, I don't know. It could be tomorrow, it could be in four years' time.

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My argument is that the futures market for oil is only partly an oil market, because it is also a financial market. People buy and sell a financial instrument, which is called a futures contract.

Seems to me like an argument for placing limits on "investment" by retirement funds in commodities such as oil and wheat.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."