China is also importing western greed, which has caused all manner of overblown assumptions about the industry there. From Chinese officials to the manufacturers themselves, the industry will have to focus on performance.
In the US, turbine performance is off some 4% from that achieved by the same machines in Europe. Most of this is due to the lack of infrastructure, where the US still needs to build up its cadre of trained and experienced service technicians and spare parts stores. China will need several years minimum to achieve the equivalent.
It will take a bit longer for Chinese technology to achieve European standards. I don't believe the industry is yet aware of how serious this problem might be. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
My example is from my tangential view from the broadcast business. They have gone from extremely limited capabilities, perhaps zero capability to make a contribution 10 years ago, to the ability to understand and contribute to a huge undertaking at the Olympics.
They are still buying in from the west and have a number of western advisors, but they will not be embarrassing themselves next week in an extremely complex undertaking.
Usually, after every Olympics there is a huge glut of equipment and the market crashes in the host country for all the used gear around. China will suck it up and just keep creating more since they have so much of the country still to bring up to standards...and now they can do it with their own people on their own time.
Point being, apres-Olympics, they will release a lot of talent and focus and energy on other things...and since the US is no longer capable of maintaining its willing addict status, they will focus much of that inward. Given the exploding impact of energy costs, I'd guess a lot of focus will go to alternative energy sources.
Doesn't 2020 seem like a long way away? Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.
Frank Delaney ~ Ireland
