Of the western states, I think Montana and the Dakotas may be the potential surprises. Last poll I saw out of North Dakota had it dead even. McCain was either +2 or +4 in SD, and Obama was +5 in Montana.
North Carolina still looks tight, although I won't believe we have a real shot until Obama at least pulls even in one poll, and really only if he takes a lead in one. Both are in the mid- to low-40s there, so plenty of room to grow, and Obama could pull out those extra few points with a huge black turnout.
Michigan and Pennsylvania seem to have come home to the Dems. My sense is that Ohio's pretty tight, perhaps a slight McCain lead prior to O's Mid-East/Yurp trip, but it's all about economics there.
All of the polling aggregators have Obama currently holding about 300 EVs, give or take a bit. I'd love the big 375+ landslide, but I'll damned sure take 300 -- or 270, for that matter (a win is a win, after all). Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
I use polls this far out to see whose developing a baseline of support.
(Dinner Time! Yeah! I'm starving.)
Of the western states, I think Montana and the Dakotas may be the potential surprises.
Note that "surprises" is the operative word there. Obviously New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada are going to be higher up on the swing state list.
Which is why I think Peyote Bill is the Veep. Note that he never appears on the lists that are "leaked," despite the fact that we all know he's on the shortlist. Throw the press off the trail and all that with Guv'nuh Timmeh. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
