European Tribune - Comments - Thursday Open Thread

Thursday Open Thread | 91 comments (91 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

the changes are quite amazing:

2007 (prev.) 2006 (prev.) 2005 (prev.)
GDB real 2,0 2,2 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,1

Quarterly
T1 (prev.) T2 (prev.) T3 (prev.) T4 (prev.)
2007 0,1 0,6 4,8 3,8 4,8 4,9 -0,2 0,6
2006 4,8 4,8 2,7 2,4 0,8 1,1 1,5 2,1
2005 3,0 3,1 2,6 2,8 3,8 4,5 1,3 1,2

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 11:29:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Revised figures (none / 1)

Someone's gotta be screwing with the numbers there or just incompetent. GDP figures shouldn't swing wildly like that.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 11:33:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Under Bush... (none / 1)

Anything bad is possible.

by Magnifico on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 11:58:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Revised figures (4.00 / 2)

The consecrated narrative is that the US is struggling with lower growth, while Europe is in imminent danger of recession. So don't hesitate too long on the choice between screwing with the numbers and incompetence.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 12:02:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Revised figures (none / 0)

Is this so incredible? I think not. Remember the Euro is nearly 100% up to its lowest point about 10 years ago. Trade balance is probably a backing for the US economy, and stalling for Europe.
That people don't feel how good the economy is, is no wonder, as their feeling is dominated by consumption, not production. As Americans have lived for years beyond their means, now it feels like pain, when they start to live within their means, even if their means go a bit up.

Gemach, gemach

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 12:23:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Revised figures (4.00 / 2)

The Bloomberg report and the figures Jérôme cites are not talking about feelings, or people's perception of the economy, but of a downward revision of growth numbers over a dozen quarters.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 01:02:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Revised figures (none / 0)

They have revised 3 year old quarterly GDP numbers!!?
Ils sont fous, ces Americains!

However, Europe is in imminant danger of a recession, when taking 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth as measure. I'm almost sure, Q2 was negative in Europe.
While the US could have had a recession in q4,07/q1,08 and being already in recovery - or of course in the middle of a long recession, we may get that information probably, uhmm, 2011.

Gemach, gemach

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 02:34:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Revised figures (4.00 / 2)

My point was about the generally received media narrative, that avoids saying "recession" about the US, but doesn't shrink from it re Europe.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 03:49:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Revised figures (none / 1)

I've commented here on the US cooking economic numbers before, though i haven't attempted a compilation. But just a few days ago the latest job numbers were released, showing an increase in jobs (Bloomberg article). Little noticed was a sentence revising the previous month downwards. the market reacted with gusto, but i couldn't help thinking it was but another example of statistical manipulation. swear i've seen that often.

Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 12:31:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Revised figures (none / 1)

There have been periodic wry comments in Barron's about the "adjustments" that are made to the data. No helpful adjustment is ever abandoned just because the reason for its existence is no longer valid. Bruce could comment more specifically, should he so choose.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.

by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 02:42:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Revised figures (4.00 / 2)

Why ? it's a derivative, after all...

Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 12:18:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Revised figures (4.00 / 2)

Apparently some derivatives are more derivative than others.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 02:59:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Revised figures (none / 1)

Jerome, why don't the quarterly numbers you give don't average close to the yearly numbers you cite

Quarterly
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -O-
2007 0,1 4,8 4,8 -0,2 2.4 (?!)
EuroZ 3.3 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.7

2006 4,8 2,7 0,8 1,5 2.5 (?!)
EuroZ 2.6 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.0

2005 3,0 2,6 3,8 1,3 2.7 (?!)
EuroZ 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.8

Both regions average in this last 3 years to 2.5% groth within rounding errors.

EuroZ from ECB:
Euro area 13 (fixed composition) - Gross domestic product at market price - Constant prices - ECU/euro - Seasonally adjusted, not working day adjusted, Annual percentage change

Gemach, gemach

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Thu Jul 31st, 2008 at 02:58:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thursday Open Thread | 91 comments (91 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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