(Since datasets start in January 1979, moving averages start with December 1979.)
Solar minima in is period: September 1986, May 1996, now.
Recent El Niños: 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007. *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
Also, I don't understand what Luís's argument about a low likelihood of a jump back to +0.6 is about. There are a lot of similarly rapid and large-amplitude movements in this graph as the present one - usually followed by a swing in the other direction. As JakeS says, it's the long-term trend that is of interest, at least on the ENSO period scale, so we may see in two years at the earliest whether the present downswing has a longer-term downward component. *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
Now done. A stupid mistake in the hemisphere diagrams corrected too. For good measure, here is the first graph for a 36-month moving average:
*Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
