Global temperatures will drop slightly this year as a result of the cooling effects of the La Niña current in the Pacific
The data published shows for each month the temperature anomaly - the difference from the temperature measured to the average of a reference period, in this case 1979 - 1998. The following graphs were obtained by averaging the twelve temperature anomalies collected for each year, plus the average of the first semester of 2008.
Nomad:
Any thoughts on the correction the Hadley Centre had recently done on the presentation of their monthly temperature data because 2008 was turning out to be too cold to be true?
(Since datasets start in January 1979, moving averages start with December 1979.)
Solar minima in is period: September 1986, May 1996, now.
Recent El Niños: 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007. *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
Also, I don't understand what Luís's argument about a low likelihood of a jump back to +0.6 is about. There are a lot of similarly rapid and large-amplitude movements in this graph as the present one - usually followed by a swing in the other direction. As JakeS says, it's the long-term trend that is of interest, at least on the ENSO period scale, so we may see in two years at the earliest whether the present downswing has a longer-term downward component. *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
Now done. A stupid mistake in the hemisphere diagrams corrected too. For good measure, here is the first graph for a 36-month moving average:
*Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
