Display:
Why did you ask for the data? Planning a diary?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 03:32:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, but because I was wondering at this in the article:

Spain has become a center of solar installations

I somehow missed this, but as is clear from the data we dug up, this is a fairly recent development.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 03:44:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Add to that the huge quantities of solar thermal being developed in the south of spain, which is about the same again. I'm doing research for a wind company looking to get into solar and my database has close to a Gigawatt of solar thermal due to come into play in the next couple of years in Spain, including Andasol 1 and 2, Solnova 1-3, Solar Tres and PS20. Most of them are either parabolic trough or power tower plants. (both types use mirrors to reflect heat from the sun onto a heat transfer fluid that then boils steam to drive a turbine and make electricity. The market has soared in the last few years because designs using molten salt as the fluid have come through. Molten salt can be stored easily in its hotter form and this can extend the power generation capacity of a CSP (concentrated solar thermal power) plant to close to 24 hours in a desert location.

There's a lot of CSP going up in the Mojave desert in california too. Expect both CSP and concentrated photovoltaics to explode onto the scene in 2009-11. We project that both will be cheaper than traditional PV sooner rather than later.

by darrkespur on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 05:08:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The thing with solar thermal is that it's still in the pilot phase with direct development funds, so those visions of reduced prices and rapid future development in the future are only visions so far. But it would be nice if it came to be, would be good for desert areas.

I note both the Mojave desert and most Spanish projects use the technology of four German companies: Flabeg (producer of the parabolic mirrors), Schott (manufacturer of the receivers), NOVATEC BioSol (complete supplier of Fresnel lens technology plants) and Solar Millennium (project developer).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 05:44:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Plus a lot of the photovoltaic price estimates are based on the current polysilicon shortages which are starting to come to a close as the silicon manufacturers see their investments over the last few years start to produce more capacity. (Silicon wafer production is projected to triple in the next few years)

Having said that, although you're right about the funding for CSP, the sheer size of a lot of these plants (at least 25 in the 50-500MW region scheduled to be up in the next two-three years) means that they will become a major share of the renewable market a lot quicker than PV or Wind did, which started with farms of a few MW. The economies of scale for a CSP farm make it a good investment for large utility companies. Water supply and grid connection to suitable desert regions are probably the biggest concerns.

by darrkespur on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 06:06:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Note:

  1. I don't like to leave investment to large utility companies. That's a plus for them, as it can facilitate the maintenance of their market share and thus power (not electric, but economic and political) concentration, not for us.

  2. The size of an installation may matter for economies of scale (which don't necessarily exist for PV), but for growth, don't be blinded by plant size: it's total installations that matter. The overwhelming bulk of the more than 1GW installed in Germany last year were rooftop installations, tens of thousands of them.

  3. Do you have a good link listing those 25 plants scheduled to be up in the next two-three years? I would be very grateful!


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 06:19:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, I can give you a few links. I'm not quite sure what you mean by 'us' though - I'm all in favour of microgeneration but getting utility companies on board is no bad thing in my book - the more clean power, the better. If you can build 200MW of power in one installation versus 200MW over 5 or 10 installations of PV or wind, the investment industry will look more favourably on giving you the money. Thermal through big utility installations in combination with microgeneration and other renewables are all part of the picture.

Abengoa have 280MW planned in Arizona 'Solana' as well as the Solucar platform in spain which has 12MW in operation, 120MW being built and 170MW in development.

100MW is being developed by BrightSource Energy in Ivanpah, California due to commence operations in 2011, with deals for another 800MW in the future.

The European Solar Thermal Electricity Association is projecting 30GW of european CSP by 2020, not including any EU-led North African projects pumped in by high voltage wires.

There's a lot more out there too, Ausra and Solar Millenium

Due to the feed-in tariffs, Spain is the biggest market for CSP but California's tariffs are triggering a lot of investment in the Mojave desert. Solar Millenium estimates 800MW a year in California alone from 2008 onward.

by darrkespur on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 07:24:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the links! I will read through them.

If you can build 200MW of power in one installation versus 200MW over 5 or 10 installations of PV or wind, the investment industry will look more favourably on giving you the money.

That's an argument to change the rules for the investment industry, not against microgeneration. The point, again, is power: once the large semi-monopolists are back in power on the market, they will again aim at stiffling the 'competition', not at expanding renewables. (This is one of the reasons feed-in tariffs work better than certificates; and that most - but not all - existing quasi-monopolist utilities make little use of, and fight feed-in tariffs tooth-and-nails.) So in the end, I am okay with large utilities taking part in renewables development, but the rules of the game should be set up so that there is a de-facto clear priority for new players entering the 'market'.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 07:36:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The nice thing about the feed-in tariffs is that all the countries that have good tariffs for big projects (like Spain) have even better ones for microgeneration (I think it's about 50 euros a kWh better in spain), so you get to have both. The ideal is obviously to have microgeneration on most rooves that can support them, with big utility projects in wind, solar thermal, CPV, hydro and eventually tidal and wave adding big numbers to the multitude of smaller installations.

My priority is getting the number of megawatts supplying electricity renewably up as fast and effectively as possible. Every possible tech and scale is needed.

by darrkespur on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 07:42:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wind is typically big utility project in the US, but less so in much of the EU (but, well, big utilities are on it just in Spain). Good for farmers. I'm somewhat sceptical of tidal and wave; not because of technology, but total energy harvestable (at least on the shores of the EU). But even if a small part, they can be part of the mix.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 09:12:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
<after browsing links> Some news I missed!

So the four developers look to have fixed contracts for about 2000 MW, with more vague commitments for thousands more. And I note I also saw that SCHOTT (the maker of receivers) wants to run up production to an impressive 1 GW/year.

That's more than I thought. But say 30 GW of CSP in the EU by 2020 is not beyond the scale of growth shown by wind and PV. (Wind achieved it by 2003, about 10 years after the start of 100-MW-scale growths in EU countries, and wind has a much higher capacity factor; PV is still only around 5 MW in the EU, with rapid growth from around 2003, but at the present rate of growth, 30 MW by 2013 doesn't look unlikely.)

But anyway, hopefully, solar thermal is now going to be the third renewable to mature in the electricity sector. I hope (dry-rock) geothermal will follow soon.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 08:42:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hey DoDo, you might want to check this assessment by NREL as well. It's nice and concise about the state of CSP:

http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/power_databook/docs/pdf/db_chapter02_csp.pdf

by darrkespur on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 11:20:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
although that one is a bit old nowadays...
by darrkespur on Wed Jul 9th, 2008 at 11:20:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series