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Tropical storm Gustav hurricane threat to US | World news | guardian.co.uk

Tropical Storm Gustav today drenched Jamaica and threatened the Cayman Islands as the US Gulf coast made preparations to be hit by a possible hurricane next week.

Gustav ripped off roofs, downed power lines and pounded rain into Jamaica, triggering landslides and flooding but no reported deaths. At least 68 people died earlier when the storm hit Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

If Gustav continues its current trajectory, the storm could hit Louisiana -- perhaps as a major hurricane -- by next Tuesday, although it could wind up almost anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico, the US National Hurricane Centre in Miami said today.

The storm was centred near Jamaica's western coast today, with its maximum sustained winds clocked at almost 65mph (100 kmph), the hurricane centre said.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 03:56:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So far, the trajectory has NOLA written all over it.  The real danger is this:

When a Loop Current Eddy breaks off in the Gulf of Mexico at the height of hurricane season, it can lead to a dangerous situation where a vast reservoir of energy is available to any hurricane that might cross over. This occurred in 2005, when a Loop Current Eddy separated in July, just before Hurricane Katrina passed over and "bombed" into a Category 5 hurricane. The eddy remained in the Gulf and slowly drifted westward during September. Hurricane Rita passed over the same Loop Current Eddy three weeks after Katrina, and also explosively deepened to a Category 5 storm.

This year, we had another Loop Current Eddy break off in July. This eddy is now positioned due south of New Orleans (Figure 2), and this eddy has similar levels of heat energy to the 2005 eddy that powered Katrina and Rita. Should Gustav pass over or just to the left of this eddy, we can expect the storm to significantly intensify.



"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 04:33:51 PM EST
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