As to what Europe, meaning the EU and its constituent nations, should do. Sanctions? A committment to alternative energy? (which I take from Jerome)using the built-in European majority to remove Russia from G8. Putting pressure on Georgia to allow self-determination to its people, while urging Russia to do the same with its regions?
As to Georgia's stupidity. It wasn't stupid to calculate that Russia's response would be limited - that might have been right on the balance of probabilities, the stupidity was in not appreciating the consequences if their calculations were wrong. But I still don't think they expected NATO to come swinging into the region, whatever Kristol was telling them. They were stupid, but not THAT stupid.
Perhaps, yes, in a parallel universe.
In this one, however, when Russia tells you up front, ahead of time, before you start mowing down S. Ossetian villages, that if you start mowing down S. Ossetian villages, they will retaliate, when Russia makes it as clear as humanly possible to you that it has a previous agreement with S. Ossetia in which they will defend S. Ossetia should you start mowing down S. Ossetian villages, then, in this universe, the balance of probabilities is that Russia will retaliate and do everything in their power to defend S. Ossetia.
C'mon. Anyone who's ever taken History 101 knows that when Russia says it will fight back, it does, and they usually do not err on the side of restraint. I can understand some of the greatest megalomaniacs in history underestimating Russia's will, but Saakashvili? That has to fall into the category of "THAT stupid." Or "delusional." Or "assuming the US and NATO would go to war with Russia on behalf of Georgia." "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
With due respect to poemless' anti-war diary, we should all realize that part of the Russian response is revenge for the civilians and soldiers killed in the Georgian offensive in S. Ossetia. (And part of that is sheer political calculation: 1) the residents of S. Ossetia are now fully convinced that Russia is their only friend in the world; and 2) Georgia, Ukraine, Estonia, etc. are now fully apprised of consequences.) As soon as the message is acknowledged and all of the Georgian troops are out of Abkhazia and Ossetia, military action will cease. paul spencer
MOSCOW -- The past week's events in South Ossetia are bound to shock and pain anyone. Already, thousands of people have died, tens of thousands have been turned into refugees, and towns and villages lie in ruins. Nothing can justify this loss of life and destruction. It is a warning to all. The roots of this tragedy lie in the decision of Georgia's separatist leaders in 1991 to abolish South Ossetian autonomy. This turned out to be a time bomb for Georgia's territorial integrity. Each time successive Georgian leaders tried to impose their will by force -- both in South Ossetia and in Abkhazia, where the issues of autonomy are similar -- it only made the situation worse. New wounds aggravated old injuries. Nevertheless, it was still possible to find a political solution. For some time, relative calm was maintained in South Ossetia. The peacekeeping force composed of Russians, Georgians and Ossetians fulfilled its mission, and ordinary Ossetians and Georgians, who live close to each other, found at least some common ground. Through all these years, Russia has continued to recognize Georgia's territorial integrity. Clearly, the only way to solve the South Ossetian problem on that basis is through peaceful means. Indeed, in a civilized world, there is no other way. The Georgian leadership flouted this key principle. What happened on the night of Aug. 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against "small, defenseless Georgia" is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity.
The roots of this tragedy lie in the decision of Georgia's separatist leaders in 1991 to abolish South Ossetian autonomy. This turned out to be a time bomb for Georgia's territorial integrity. Each time successive Georgian leaders tried to impose their will by force -- both in South Ossetia and in Abkhazia, where the issues of autonomy are similar -- it only made the situation worse. New wounds aggravated old injuries.
Nevertheless, it was still possible to find a political solution. For some time, relative calm was maintained in South Ossetia. The peacekeeping force composed of Russians, Georgians and Ossetians fulfilled its mission, and ordinary Ossetians and Georgians, who live close to each other, found at least some common ground.
Through all these years, Russia has continued to recognize Georgia's territorial integrity. Clearly, the only way to solve the South Ossetian problem on that basis is through peaceful means. Indeed, in a civilized world, there is no other way.
The Georgian leadership flouted this key principle.
What happened on the night of Aug. 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against "small, defenseless Georgia" is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity.
Emphasis mine.
Could not have said it better myself. "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
As to what Europe, meaning the EU and its constituent nations, should do. Sanctions? ... using the built-in European majority to remove Russia from G8.
Further, why would Europe want to take a confrontational approach to Russia? How would it be in our interest to further alienate them? What possible purpose would that serve?
If we want to live in a world of international law we better start building it. That mean treaties, and long term building of trust. Asymmetrical treatment of display of force by Great Powers amount to little more than taking sides in a petty game of Power. There is precious little to convince me that the United States should be afforded more benefit of the doubt in its wrongdoings than Russia. Thus, with very recent precedents in such matters, I don't see how Europe could take any kind of punitive action against Russia. We could perhaps muster a sternly worded letter, condemning both sides for blah, blah, blah.
For future stability in Europe it may help to quit NATO, kick out American troupes, and assume a position of neutrality with respect to World Military Powers. Other than that, continued trade and economic interdependence with our neighbours, and treating them with respect might be a good idea.
