The present show of force is just one of the instruments Russia has to tell America that laying their bets on small middle-European states as some sort of Rumsfeldian "New Europe" is a a major strategic error.
Russia will continue to foster unrest in border states.
Europe's power is still France, Germany, Spain, Italy- the "old Europe." Russia talks with them and has the best relations in decades with them. These states by and large have the clout and the sovereignty to deal as partners with Russia- and they are not about to kneel to the USA's empirial wishes. If the US wants to bank on its new protectorates along Russia's borders rather than listen to European nations, they'll end up out in the cold.
I am in no way endorsing Russia's present strategy no more than the Chechyen wars. It's a question of looking at matters from a geopolitical view. It's a question of Realpolitik. Russia intends to reassert its position on the international stage. And one cannot dismiss the fact that it may actually please some of the "old" European states.
At this point of the crisis the biggest losers are a foolish and reckless Georgia and the Ukraine. As for the Baltic states, Poland and the Czech Republic, they would be better off building good relations with the Russian Federation rather than counting on a distant America who may well be unwilling to go all the way is a clinch. Russia is a very big and hard reality. But depicting it as an enemy once again is foolhardy.
Their existence and active support by Russia will continue to complicate the scenario for the next few years. Their destiny will certainly be part of a trade-off- but that may not come about in our lifetimes.
Moldova NEVER entering NATO - and, therefore, the EU.
As far as I know, NATO membership is not a precondition for EU accession. Given the fact that a great number of Moldovan citizens detain a Romanian passport (and many more asked for one), it will be hard to prevent Moldova to join the Union. "Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
Of course, former Soviet block countries usually wanted to be in NATO to get protection against the Russian threat they perceived. Still, we really don't have a case of a former Soviet block country willing to get into the EU but not NATO and getting its wish granted.
- Jake Ceterum censeo Chicago esse delendam
-- $E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
[I]n the 21st Century nations don't invade other nations.
Powerful stupid. Just kill me, please. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
U.S. liberates Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan: Good. Russia invades Ukraine, Estonia, Lithuania: Bad.
Rice: How dare the Russians invade a sovereign state...
Bush: That's what we do.
