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There are four wannabe "states" who have coalisced as of 1994 in a mutual defense organization under the auspices of the Russian Minister of the Interior: Transnistria, South Ossetsia, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh. All of these enclaves represent a political and military problem for their "hosts"- Moldavia, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaigian. (Sorry about the English spelling transcriptions.)

Their existence and active support by Russia will continue to complicate the scenario for the next few years. Their destiny will certainly be part of a trade-off- but that may not come about in our lifetimes.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Thu Aug 14th, 2008 at 11:52:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Until Aug 8, 2008, the most likely scenario for Transnistria was coming back to Moldova in exchange for Moldova NEVER entering NATO - and, therefore, the EU. This might have changed now, but Russia has worked very hard on resolving this one and hammering on the compromise I described. And Nagorno-Karabakh is an entirely separate issue, it's a very democratic country which actually doesn't want to be associated with Russia. The issue is, really, just SO and Abkhasia.
by Sargon on Thu Aug 14th, 2008 at 02:33:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What has Nato membership got to do with EU membership? One is not a precondition for the other.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Aug 14th, 2008 at 02:36:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Moldova NEVER entering NATO - and, therefore, the EU.

As far as I know, NATO membership is not a precondition for EU accession. Given the fact that a great number of Moldovan citizens detain a Romanian passport (and many more asked for one), it will be hard to prevent Moldova to join the Union.

"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char

by Melanchthon on Thu Aug 14th, 2008 at 02:45:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was talking about the existing reality. NATO is and would be a pre-condition for EU until and unless the "old Europe" gets its act together and shakes off too intimate US embrace. Don't see this happening before my Altsheimer strikes and I fade into bliss of being uninformed and not caring any longer.
by Sargon on Thu Aug 14th, 2008 at 02:54:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just like Ireland, Austria, Sweden, Finland and Malta?
Left Cyprus out because the British still have a base there?
by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Thu Aug 14th, 2008 at 03:08:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm talking about the former Soviet block. Empirically, for it the NATO membership was a necessary condition for the EU entry. Whatever you can say about Finland, it wasn't in the Soviet block.

Of course, former Soviet block countries usually wanted to be in NATO to get protection against the Russian threat they perceived. Still, we really don't have a case of a former Soviet block country willing to get into the EU but not NATO and getting its wish granted.

by Sargon on Fri Aug 15th, 2008 at 05:28:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect that NATO membership was the price for US support for EU membership ...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Aug 15th, 2008 at 05:33:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do we have a case of a former Soviet bloc country wanting to get into the EU but not NATO?

- Jake

Ceterum censeo Chicago esse delendam

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Aug 15th, 2008 at 05:34:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've certainly seen it reported that the general understanding was that NATO was first and the EU second, but I've never worked out why that was.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Aug 15th, 2008 at 05:43:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because security always comes first. Something NATO but not the EU delivers.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Aug 15th, 2008 at 07:57:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In Ukraine, popular support for EU membership is much stronger than for NATO - or at least used to be. Ukrainian mass-media was almost indistinguishable from CNN/BBC during the Ossetian crisis, who knows how that will play out.
by Sargon on Fri Aug 15th, 2008 at 06:30:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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