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I've had that sig on other scoop sites, before they had picture embedding macros, and I've kept it for sentimental reasons :)

It's a piece of LaTeX which represents the defining property of a martingale.

The simplest example of a martingale in this sense is a double or nothing gambling strategy in certain games of chance(*), but a better way of understanding them is that they are purely random processes, which cannot be predicted based on historical observations: if you try to predict their future, your best guess is to duplicate the present, regardless of what you've seen in the past.

(*)wherein one proves that double or nothing fails to help one win: when the strategy has no statistical trend, then there is no advantage from using it.

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$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$

by martingale on Sun Aug 17th, 2008 at 03:44:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
um, thanks, clear as day

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Aug 17th, 2008 at 05:06:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks.  You learn something new every day.  Presumably the political analogy is that you should escalate a conflict unless you have the means to win at the escalated level - something Putin seems to understand rather well.

It's time I got out of this game....
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sun Aug 17th, 2008 at 07:19:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, international games of diplomacy are a lot more difficult to analyze than simple gambles with well defined rules. Yet the neocons do seem to behave like addicted gamblers on a losing streak of late, don't they?

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$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
by martingale on Sun Aug 17th, 2008 at 08:15:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You read French, and you are interested in game theory - you just HAVE to read my PhD dissertation on the independence of Ukraine (long title: "the independence of a country: what game theory can tell us and the exemple of Ukraine"

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Aug 18th, 2008 at 06:09:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Did you even publish a journal paper based on the thesis?
by Sargon on Mon Aug 18th, 2008 at 06:54:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sadly, no. My jury professors disagreed between themselves, and the one that ran publications was not happy that I had, according to him, pledged allegiance to a rival school of thought, and he thus vetoed any publication.

As I was not staying in academia, I did not really care and did not fight this. Thus the dissertation was never published anywhere and was quickly forgotten.

I had done an executive summary in English but can no longer find the file; I'd need to draft it again; it's probably worth it...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Aug 18th, 2008 at 07:12:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sounds very interesting. Do you have the document on the web or someplace I can download it?

Sinon, tu peux aussi m'envoyer le fichier par email, l'addresse que j'ai indiquee sur ET lors de l'enregistrement est bidon, mais fonctionne.

--
$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$

by martingale on Mon Aug 18th, 2008 at 09:30:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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