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Of course, international games of diplomacy are a lot more difficult to analyze than simple gambles with well defined rules. Yet the neocons do seem to behave like addicted gamblers on a losing streak of late, don't they?

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$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
by martingale on Sun Aug 17th, 2008 at 08:15:59 PM EST
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