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China will eventually get Russian gas - once it agrees to pay the necessary price for it (ie more expensive than its coal is). That will probably require another 10-15 years, if not more.

But China will never get gas that would otherwise go to Europe, it will get gas from East Siberian fields that can only ever be used for that purpose. So such sales would only come in addition to, and separately from, European sales. They will provide some measure of diversification of revenue streams to Russia, but no additional physical leverage against Europe. But as Europe does not even acknowledge that we hold an "energy (payments) weapon" against Russia, this is all irrelevant, right?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Aug 25th, 2008 at 05:55:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[Jake's tinfoil hat technology(TM)]

Except insofar as it might allow the Ruskies to stop selling us our! gas because they have an alternative revenue stream to make up for lost profits.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Aug 26th, 2008 at 02:31:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But China will never get gas that would otherwise go to Europe, it will get gas from East Siberian fields that can only ever be used for that purpose.

They could also turn it into LNG and sell it to the entire pacific basin.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Aug 26th, 2008 at 11:32:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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