Naked Capitalism [blog]: CFTC Investigating Whether Big Traders Lied About Oil Inventories (September 4, 2008)
Wow, what happened? The CFTC went from being a lapdog to developing teeth. A little late, now that oil prices are on a forced march downward, but the commission could have backed off as oil became less of a front-burner issue. (Of course, your cynical blogger wonders if there was a risk that this story might get to the media, completely undercutting its credibility). Note that the drift of the investigation is that inventories may have been underreported, which would lead to higher prices. No names yet, but this looks to be a serious investigation. Admittedly, this is consistent the with the thrust the CFTC said it would take earlier, looking into tankers and storage, but it looks like they are proceeding in a thorough, disciplined manner. I have a buddy who was the DA in a pretty rough and tumble town (Bridgeport, CT). He said that the FBI wasn't composed of the brightest bulbs, but they often got their man because they were relentless. People in the private sector like to look down on regulators, but many are very able, and like the FBI, they can be dogged as well.
No names yet, but this looks to be a serious investigation. Admittedly, this is consistent the with the thrust the CFTC said it would take earlier, looking into tankers and storage, but it looks like they are proceeding in a thorough, disciplined manner.
I have a buddy who was the DA in a pretty rough and tumble town (Bridgeport, CT). He said that the FBI wasn't composed of the brightest bulbs, but they often got their man because they were relentless. People in the private sector like to look down on regulators, but many are very able, and like the FBI, they can be dogged as well.
HiD could give you a more definitive view, but I think that WTI is the tail on the Brent dog these days.
I think we have seen a speculative bubble deflate by about $40.00 per barrel.
This bubble has been driven - like all bubbles - by gearing generally and geared off exchange positions in Brent in particular, I think.
WTI storage games is one aspect: another has been the recent collapse of crude tanker rates after a spike earlier this year when many tankers were essentially being used as floating storage.
I advocate not only a neutral utility
Transaction Registry
but also a "Title Registry" enabling regulators to easily check who has title to what oil. Such a registry is of course essential to electronic transfer of title, which has long been possible for oil and goods in transit, using
Bolero
but not easily for static oil and commodities. "Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky
Less than seventy 600,000 barrel cargoes per month of Brent/BFOE (the price of which sets the market) have a market value between $4bn and $6bn in the recent "large volatility".
This is dwarfed by the money - most of it leverage - swilling around the market.
I have a lot of sympathy with your argument - which is essentially saying that we are seeing swings between a "seller's market" and a "buyer's market".
It's the wildness of the swing, and how we may characterise this, which is the issue.
IMHO "bubbles" are everywhere and always caused by leverage, and that's what we've seen here.
Moreover, I think we will see such "large volatilities" again and again until the market experiences a "meltdown" taking the single points of failure aka energy clearing houses with them.
This insanely leveraged market - run by intermediaries for intermediaries - can only have one outcome.
It's going to fuck itself, and sooner, rather than later. "Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky
