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I agree that we can (and should) shrink population.
But too quick a shrink is next to unmanageable. Suddenly empty towns, infrastructure that needs to be stopped before it's obsolete, simply because there are fewer customers, while you need to retrain many people to care for the elderly when there are not enough coming out of the school system to fill the positions, immigration that no longer takes the time for integration...
And people tend to feel happier when there are children around (particularly old people).

So a good fertility rate target is not >2.1 indeed, but it's not 1.2 either. I would hazard 1.8 as a good target. I guess Russia, Germany, Italy and Spain really are rather low and will suffer, particularly in the countryside.
France and the UK in particular are too high.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Sep 9th, 2008 at 01:47:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Could somebody explain to me why an exact number is always quoted as the ideal one? The population will increase a lot faster if every woman has two children at the age of 15, compared to having the same two children at 40. Obviously there is probably a strong correlation between the age one first has children, and the number of children, but is the correlation strong enough to be used for comparisons across cultures?
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Sep 9th, 2008 at 04:39:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In a steady state, the population won't rise wether women have their 2.1 children when they are 15 or when they are 40. The transition from 40 to 15 would indeed mean a population rise, though.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed Sep 10th, 2008 at 02:20:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You're right: I confused the two. So that the transition the other way means an additional population decrease.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Wed Sep 10th, 2008 at 02:41:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You don't get suddenly empty towns even with 1.2 children per women (especially not if there is net immigration, as it tends to be in all EU countries you named). Internal migration has a much stronger effect on that front...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Sep 10th, 2008 at 07:04:13 AM EST
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