Having worked in/with various civil service stats depts in Wales it doesn't surprise me when stats are used in a linear and too simple way like you've outlined here. When carried out internally as an ongoing stats collection and analysis process, I've not seen great access to systems that could allow for more complex modelling of different scenarios to give better predictability. So it comes down to the capabilities and forethought of the stats people which is variable. A different matter if a big piece of research or trend analysis is commissioned.
I would have expected more to be put in at European level though. Ad astra per aspera
Surely not a lack of software? You can do quite sophisticated models with GNUPLOT and a cheap FORTRAN compiler.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
When I worked as a data analyst we developed all of our own tools in Excel, Access and Snap since that was all we had! Ad astra per aspera
If people don't do scenario analysis is because they can't or won't, not because the software won't support it. A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
Organisations such as the Office for National Statistics would be a very different matter and entry to jobs there requires rigorous standards to be met eg stats/maths related degree. Ad astra per aspera
Because these news items often sound as if someone has decided the graph starts here and their one and only data point goes there and if they draw a straight line - it's a news story!
But it's the media, so silliness abounds.
Why? Excel/VBA skills are in high demand for investment banking research jobs. A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
The journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis has a whole special issue on the subject.
I am teaching a graduate course of ecologists and forestry students this year, where Xcel will be outlawed. I expect much wailing and gnashing of teeth, but I won't have it in my lab. Plus, gnuplot produces better graphics. Better than R (ducks)
Sometimes yes. Not all Govt institutions though but at least a small number I have come into contact with. Ad astra per aspera
It always comes down to capabilities and forethought because of the GIGO problem. A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
