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Yes, what does Russia think it will gain by recognising Abkhazia and South Ossetia ? I mean, they have to know the price will be high, so what are they buying in exchange ?

They probably are thinking further down the line, but how ?

The real point of contention I believe is Crimea, and particularly Sebastopol. How would this help them over there ?

by balbuz on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 01:36:51 PM EST
I can think of lots of possibilities, the most likely being that it forces the U.S. et al to be reactive rather than active which provides breathing space while everyone rethinks their positions.

Other possibilities? it makes sure that the neighbours all take Russia into account in their future plans. In the percieved monopolar world a lot of countries were ignoring russian feelings, if their actions could be seen as fine with the U.S. This could be seen as Russia reminding everyone its still in the game, without them having to do something directly threatening to any other major player.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 02:01:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but didn't they just have to sit tight around those places as peacemakers, annoying NATO ?

Why recognise them ?

by balbuz on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 02:55:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
<speculation class=wild>Because otherwise Russia would probably ne dup forced to withdraw its troops from them immediately, given that they would be considered hostile by the Georgian government after this month's conflict. Therefore, the only way to stay is to recognise the regions as sovereign. </speculation>

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 03:33:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That as well.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 03:35:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
probably ne dup forced

probably end up forced

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 03:39:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because otherwise Russia would probably ne dup forced to withdraw its troops from them immediately

I don't know.

The difference recognising these republics makes, is that they create a situation they cannot wiggle out of. This may be what they wanted. So you could be close.

But, aren't Turkish troops still in Cyprus, 30+ years after the invasion ?

by balbuz on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 03:58:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But, aren't Turkish troops still in Cyprus, 30+ years after the invasion ?

Actually, I posted too fast, this reinforces your point.

by balbuz on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 04:04:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How's the price going to be high? So far all we've had is a lot of bellicose talk from NATO and the State Department - inasmuch as one can separate the two. But it's not like the people who are doing the tough talking have much leverage against Russia.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 02:13:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok, let's suppose they get way with it easy. Still, what is the gain ?
by balbuz on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 02:56:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can think of three:

  • Domestic political gain. This sort of stuff always plays pretty well back home.

  • Local strategic gain, perhaps. I don't understand the details of the disputes in the area well enough to judge this one.

  • They send a clear indication of the alternatives to dealing with Russia as a partner in good faith. Basically punishing default in the game by defaulting, which is a sensible strategy.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 02:59:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Domestic political gain. This sort of stuff always plays pretty well back home.
I intend to ask folks over there how they react to it.

Local strategic gain, perhaps.
Might be it. I hope someone has an idea.

Basically punishing default in the game by defaulting, which is a sensible strategy.
Me no understand. If you don't play nice, I won't play nice either ?

by balbuz on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 03:25:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you don't play nice, I won't play nice either ?

Pretty much. Sometimes it is worth taking damage to make clear that you won't accept disrespect/abuse. Bullies generally pick on the ones that don't fight back.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 03:30:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that's close to the mark. We know that NK was reprieved from god knows what because they managed to build a bomb which scared the Americans, and Iran is smart enough to sail ahead with building one for the same reason.

While the danger is always present that the people in the White House will snap and bring down the planet, their actions show that they respect strength in others, and only stamp on the weak.

--
$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$

by martingale on Wed Aug 27th, 2008 at 07:49:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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