The only thing that can save their bacon is another massive GOTV of the Evangelical/Christian Right. So the thing to watch is McCain's "Enthusiasm" numbers.
And that will be that.
At this point the R's only chance is a sniper on the roof.
But somehow, I'm not yet convinced.
This is grasping at straws. The veep crap, the lame-o-meter-through-the-ceiling "congrats" ad, the bitchfest about the columns, etc. It's really quite pathetic.
Which is why I'm inclined to think Gallup's polling matches McCain's internal polling. The Democratic convention has gone pretty damned well. Michelle and Hillary kicked ass. Joey and Billeh were quite good (and their effect hasn't been felt yet). And it's probably a safe bet that Obama's not going to be awful.
I could be wrong. Maybe they just want attention. But these sure are the signs you look for when you want to know if the opponent is frightened. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
So you don't think choosing a recently pro-choice Mormon or a still pro-choice Jew would be good for McCain?
The Mormon vote is locked for the GOP already. The Jewish vote is locked for the Dems. As much as these can can be, of course.
Every GOPer I've spoken with is truly scared shitless of McCain choosing Lieberman, because it would rally the Dems and potentially cause a floor fight at the convention.
Now with Mitt -- sure, you further solidify an already pretty solid Mormon vote. (Utah can then, I think, be called a "solid McCain" state. You go, girl.) But you also run the risk of further depressing your base in the South and the more Evangelical areas of the West. People like -- oh, I dunno -- McCain's mother (who clearly hates Mormons).
Finally, do you really want to send Mitt out to get slaughtered by Biden? I know McCain hates Mittens because he thinks Mitt's a pussy (which, granted, he is), so maybe he'd enjoy that, but McCain does presumably want to win. And when he doesn't have the questions handed to him ahead of time, McCain is a pretty lousy debater, even relative to Obama (who isn't exactly God's gift to debating). Why risk getting beat in the presidential debate and then watching your veep compound the problem by being truly slaughtered?
Pawlenty is the safest choice, but I don't think he gets you anything. He's not terribly popular in Minnesota anyway. And why should he be? This is the guy who vetoed the transportation bill before the bridge collapse. He's also got all the charisma of a turnip, and is about as deep as Dan Quayle.
But he doesn't piss anybody off.
I'm still betting on Mittens. But I'd go with Pawlenty if I were McCain.
For the record, Mitt's at about 51% on Intrade. Pawlenty's at about 48%. So it's almost even money. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Anyway, thought you'd get a kick out of this bit from the Onion: I dream of a day when my Democratic nominee will be judged, "not by the color of his skin but the arugula-laden contents of his recycled Whole Foods grocery bags." Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
The GOP could very easily open a ton of offices directly after their convention. I admit that doesn't look likely, now, but it would be a nice PR coup after all the foo-foo about Obama's effort.
10-4 on the argula thing. ;-)
It's far too late for them now, and McCain's not the kind of guy the evangelicals will come out for in masses.
Putting Mr. squirrel frier on the ballot might do the trick, but they're not going to do that.
It takes time to build a GOTV machine but once built regular maintenance can keep it ticking over. The Evangelical turn-out was the triumph of the GOP in '04. How much of the machine is left, how many people they can get to staff the machine, how effective the machine will be are open questions.
Given the '06 results I think it is safe to assume this machine is in need of oiling and, perhaps, a new transmission. In the GOP's favor is loosely attached, low information, voter participation and interest in politics increases in a presidential year. (Loosely attached, low information, voter pretty much defines the Evangelical block, Praise Jeebus!) A restocking, recapitulation, of this machine could, would, fly under the notice of journalists since a good deal of work could be done within existing churches and social (personal) networks.
let them see what Holy Wrath looks like, since they're all so keen at calling it down for others... ~Government budget deficits are not nearly as dangerous as the deficits we have created in vital and complex natural systems.~ Naomi Klein.
