That's largely because it's hard to imagine winning Ohio without a rustbelt sweep of Michigan and Pennsylvania as well. We seem to have Iowa solid, and NM pretty close. The only Kerry state outside the rustbelt which is in play seems to be NH, and I'm pretty sure about that one. Or in other words, lose Ohio, and McCain is toast. But CO and VA make for an alternative victory scenario. I want a landslide, but I'll settle for any win. The states where he needs to concentrate his resources are OH, MI, CO, and VA.