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And we apparently have our GOPerVeep: Sarah Palin of Alaska.  Three years younger than Obama.  Only held office for a year and a half.

Against Joe Biden.

So much for the whole experience thing McCain was pushing.

Those internals must look really bad.  Obama's going to be pushing a very solid double-digit lead (and over that key 50% mark) if the trends continue.

McCain panicked, and decided he needed a big play.  In American football terms, this is a Hail Mary.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 11:09:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course it has overtones of a gamble about it, but I suspect the media are going to love Palin. The timeline of the Republican convention coming after the Dems also works in their favour. In a week no-one will remember anything about the Dem convention.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 11:19:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In a debate he'll have to pull his punches or be accused of "hitting the girl. Oh you bully!"

Now where's the fun in that! - Megatron
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 11:58:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Dammit, how fast do you type? You posted while I was still trying to write.

Damn, missed by ten minutes....

by lychee on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:11:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Although if more than one person is thinking the same thing, it probably isn't paranoia.
by lychee on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:15:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He doesn't need to throw punches anymore.  This is even better for the veep debate, because throwing punches comes with some risk, especially given Biden's foot-in-mouth disease.

Palin knows nothing about foreign affairs.  All Biden's got to do is stand there, be a gentleman, and answer the questions.

What I'd like to see now is an effort, especially among women in our party, to portray McCain as condescending towards women with this decision.

His experience argument, as all the pundits (even Joe Scarborough) are helpfully pointing out, is now gone.

If we can show this for what it is (not easy, btw) -- a pathetic, cynical choice that treats female voters like idiots -- this election will be over, and it'll be a question of how badly McCain gets beat.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:20:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh man, I wish I could share your optimism.

Now where's the fun in that! - Megatron
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:24:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't say I was optimistic.  These are, after all, the Democrats.  I just said it could be done.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:46:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't get the idea out of my head that they chose a woman also because they think it'll make Biden ease up in the VP debate-- maybe they're hoping to make him look like a bully. Yes, it's a very condescending, out-of-date attitude toward women, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was part of their logic when they chose her.
by lychee on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:10:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, that's the least of it.  All of those pissed off Hillary supporters who feel "those sexist bastard men stole their chance to go down in history."  

So the Republicans ask that old question, "How stupid ARE American women, anyway?"

Ooooooooooooooooo ... I'm going to pay for that one.  Hope poemless doesn't see it.  My laptop will fry. :)

Now where's the fun in that! - Megatron

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:14:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another possibility: Now they can question the motives of any woman who isn't voting for McCain. "But don't you want to see a woman VP? Don't you think she can handle the job? Does this mean you don't think women are qualified to be VP?" They won't be able to change any votes, but it will be enough to make campaign season that much more annoying.
by lychee on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:20:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's really not a stupid choice. It's not an inspired one - probably because if anyone were that inspired, they'd be running for president - but it's not trainwreck stupid.

All Palin has to do to pass on foreign policy is wave some red meat around. Biden will look nuanced and possibly a little condescending, and that's not going to help him.

The abortion issue will bring in some evangelicals, and overall it makes McCain look pro-women, which won't be bad for him.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:46:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was hoping he would choose Condi Rice.  Get the women, and split the black vote in one shot.  Plus she has all of this wonderful, on the job, been there/done that, experience as Sec. of State.

"What, you won't vote for A BLACK WOMAN?  What kind of ...  ?!!" fill in the blank as you choose.

Now where's the fun in that! - Megatron

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:54:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By 'split the black vote' you presumably mean have an outside chance of getting to the GOP's usual stellar 80 point deficit?
by MarekNYC on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:58:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Quite honestly, I didn't know what I meant other than the lady has a lot of melanin in her epidermis and so does Obama.

"See, see, WE have black folk too!"

Now where's the fun in that! - Megatron

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 01:07:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think as well Condi would have been the better choice, but maybe a fresh face can help McCain to portray some non-existent distance between him and Bush.
And after all a gouvernor can claim some executive experience. All the other guys were just senators. Or was Biden ever in the executive?

To remain ahead in foreign policy experience was probably impossible with Biden as VP for the dems. And a competent person on foreign policy would have disagreed all the time with McCain... It es better you have a Watson, when you want to be seen as a Sherlock Holmes....

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 02:48:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Condi would have brough the taint of Bush, and made 'More Bush than ever' too easy a target.

According to the Wikipedia hagiography, Palin eats moose, has been in the NRA since she was an embryo, drives snowmobiles, came second in a beauty pageant, played aggressive competitive basketball, ran a (small) business, eloped with her high school sweetheart and drafted in seniors from an old people's home when she discovered the wedding needed witnesses, and generally crushes brazil nuts with her testicles - which is why she's been described as 'Alaska's own Thatcher.'

In a straight fight with Chuck Norris, Norris would not be a sure thing.

She's a huntin', shootin' and fishin' Republican pick, marred only by being a straight arrow with little obvious interest in corrupt get-rich-quick lobbying schemes. (If you're a Republican this is known as 'Not having any experience.')

If she weren't insane I'd probably respect her. She has a record of making ethical stands, and her only ethical issue is allegations of pressure to fire a state trooper who was divorcing her sister, and is by all accounts a real psycho.

She's certainly not another smooth guy in a suit.

Biden should be concerned. She's not going to win it for McCain, but the debates are going to be interesting.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 03:20:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know who wrote the Wiki bio, but it's not true that she was in the "NRA since she was an embryo."  In fact, she is the first immaculately conceived in vitro female saint, and her rifle was taken out of the test tube before it had a chance to grow.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 03:29:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
GGrief!  She may show up at the convention with the rifle on her shoulder, breastfeeding and thumping the bible.  She sounds like some Jurassic, b-series character.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 03:53:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the Dems have the response about right, and the conservative commentators are sheepishly agreeing.  Begala wins zinger of the day:

Palin, a first-term governor of a state with more reindeer than people, will have to put on a few pounds just to be a lightweight. Her personal story is impressive: former fisherman, mother of five. But that hardly qualifies her to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.

For a man who is 72 years old and has had four bouts with cancer to have chosen someone so completely unqualified to become president is shockingly irresponsible. Suddenly, McCain's age and health become central issues in the campaign, as does his judgment.



Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 03:29:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe not so much. The 'lack of experience' really means 'She's a fish-catching moose-eating hick and a Washington outsider' - which she is, but she's also not Romney or Pawlenty. And who can honestly say either of those would have been a better choice, even if they're more nominally 'experienced' Beltway-tawnging sleazeballs?

The 'experienced' line is one of the funniest running jokes of the campaign. McCain's only experience has involved being born rich and then marrying richer, crashing a few planes, being a POW (yay!) and hanging around Washington pretending to represent his state.

He's almost, but not quite, even more experienced than Dubya was.

Clinton's experience mostly involved being married to Bill. She spent some time in the White House and put together a health care plan which bombed, but apart from that, she's been a senator for a while. Does being a senator make you experienced?

Apparently not, because Obama is a senator, but he's not experienced enough either.

Biden is almost experienced enough after 35 years, but he wasn't experienced enough to put together a winning campaign. Therefore - not so experienced after all.  

What does it take to make everyone agree that you're experienced?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 03:41:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What does it take to make everyone agree that you're experienced?

An in with the Associated Press, apparently.

I think you're missing the real hits here.  Ragging on Palin for her lack of experience isn't the issue.  It's highly unlikely that Palin decides this election, because veeps can really only move things a little bit in one direction or another.

But what's being talked about among the Very Serious People is McCain's horrible judgment here -- judgment, of course, being the core Obama pitch for himself and against McCain on issues like Iraq.

It also raises the issue of McCain's age, which ties back in on the judgment hit.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 03:56:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
McCain had very little choice.

Romney - too many houses.
Huckabee - mutual hatred.
Jeb Bush - more Bush.
Condi - yet more Bush.
Pawlenty - an unusually 'interesting' business history.

So picking an unknown isn't totally insane, even if political heads are exploding everywhere. Palin will bring in the evangelicals - what's left of them - and probably also swing a state or two.

The choice has also made everyone forget yesterday's triumph of Obama awesomeness.

What's keeping me entertained is how the wingers are being outraged and stunned when the self-styled maverick does something genuinely mavericky.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 04:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good points.  I think he probably gains with the wingnutosphere but loses with economic conservatives.  Probably a little euphoric gain with women, but it probably fades, and it could actually turn into a backlash, since this is such blatant tokenism.

We'll see.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 04:44:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm curious to know why Palin invoked executive privilege, though.

Also, there's another, different (at least I think it's different) firing story involving one of her longtime friends, then an employee in the governor's office, who was dating the -- let me see if I can type it right -- ex-wife of Todd Palin's friend.

I'll be curious to see if there's any merit to it, although I'm skeptical due to the source.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 05:56:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, effing thank you!

Just got up from a nap.  Can't swear properly till I get 2 cups of coffee down.

Now where's the fun in that! - Megatron

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 05:24:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For the record, I agree.  If she weren't nuts, I might admire her.  Having read up a bit more on the corruption issue, I'm not sure it's a big thing.  A lot of he-said/she-said.  She seems fairly clean, especially considering her fellow Republicans.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 03:36:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think so. First of all, she has absolutely no experience campaigning, and nobody knows if she would be any good at it. Secondly, as a known quantity, the Democrats may well have figured out the right strategy to attack her. I suspect that he's hoping it will take them too long to figure out how to deal with Palin.

Secondly, he has to make sure he gets most of the racist vote. With two black candidates (or even a black and a Jew - i.e. Lieberman), there would be a risk of some (who knows how many?) voting for Bob Barr, or simply not bothering to vote.

Finally, with Rice there is no way he can attack Obama as an elitist without looking completely ridiculous...

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 03:40:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Drew, the trends won't continue. The race will be back to a 3-4% average lead for Obama come three weeks. The decision will fall in the debates.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:29:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And just imagine what the Republicans would be saying if the Democrats had picked a woman with a 4-month old baby with Down's syndrome...
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 01:08:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An Anti-Choice choice doesn't exactly hit the mainstream of the US.  I don't care if the nominee is a woman.

McCain's (Rove's?) strategy seems to be clear: run to the Right, grab the Bush vote, pick-up enough Independents and Latinos, and hope 70% of the US doesn't notice.  The only way this makes sense is if they are so worried about the Enthusiasm (lack of) in the base that they are going full bore Conservative/Christian Right.  

In a way, it's a repeat of Rove's '04/'06 strategy.  Intimating Rove ("I've got the arithmetic") is so enamored of his previous successes he can't view the situation dispassionately, objectively.  

by ATinNM on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 01:40:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Support for the above analysis!

Palin is a Creationist.

The McCain campaign is actually going to re-run the '04 strategy.

by ATinNM on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 05:16:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Whenever I hear them mention Palin I keep getting odd mental disjunctions visualising the stories Involving this one

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 06:11:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to Jack Cafferty, CNN has received about 20,000 emails on the announcement.  Almost all of them say that McCain has lost his mind.  Cafferty is saying the election's over.

The Reps can't even keep a straight face here.  If I weren't so incredibly afraid of losing this election to these nutjobs, I'd be laughing my ass off.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 07:42:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Know what you mean.

The McCain campaign is becoming 'The Horrible Example' of a political campaign for the new century.  The post-mortems, CYA, and Insider-Tell-All, which should start 'round about the end of September, by people bailing out of this disaster are going to be fun reading.  

The idiots didn't get their Talking Points out before they announced.  GOPer after GOPer was going, "I don't know anything about her" and "I never met her."

by ATinNM on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 10:24:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm 100% convinced this was a panic choice.  Look where McCain's putting his new ads: The West, the Deep South (Virginia and North Carolina) and...Minnesota.  All defense except Minnesota.

Pawlenty was the veep.

Why did they panic?  Well, I've been digging around for some focus group data.  We know the Obama campaign did them, although we obviously can't get that data, but judging by Ras's polling on Michelle (whose net favorables went sky-high -- from about net-zero to +20 -- after her speech), I think it's a safe bet this convention went off well.  One of them out in Nevada had about one-third of undecideds going over to Obama because of his speech.

McCain's people were focus-grouping that speech.  And they were afraid the election was snapping.  The Dems were closing ranks, Obama got off one of his better speeches, and the needle was moving big-time.

Keep in mind, too, that about 50m people watched the speech (more than the Olympics, American Idol, and every other big-night event but the Super Bowl).  That's unheard of for an acceptance speech.

My hunch is that McCain did successfully slow the momentum Obama would've gotten by creating this huge distraction.  He may have saved his chances in the election.  But my guess is also that, after a few days, Palin will have simply been a brief distraction.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 10:46:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And here's the evidence http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/08/how-palin-came.html] of the panic.  McCain literally decided on Palin Thursday night.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 10:59:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Keep in mind, too, that Mittens and Pawlenty are apparently p-i-s-s-e-d pissed about this.

Could we have war in St Paul?  Oh, please, oh, please, oh, please?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Aug 29th, 2008 at 07:43:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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