Display:
I don't think McCain did a lot to derail the Democrats, having a look at the tracking polls.  Gallup, under my math (which, for the record, has some controversial assumptions), should tick down for Obama tomorrow, and then tick back up Monday to about an 8-point lead -- the reason being that I think they had a poor sample Thursday night (unless the public suddenly decided it didn't like Bill Clinton and Joe Biden, which isn't likely).  So we have to wait for Monday for that to be purged from the average.

I do think the Palin picked served to, temporarily at least, slow Obama-Biden down a bit, but I reckon it was still 48/40 or 50/42 in last night's polling (which would be the first polling that covered Obama's speech).

Shifting the spotlight to Palin has very little upside to McCain now, if these polls from Ras are to be believed, because the more people know, the more I think they're going to be asking themselves, "WTF?"  (Certainly the figures on Intrade support that idea.  His stock has dropped about 5% of its value today, putting his chances of winning below 40% again, and Obama's above 60%.)

All the pick did was create noise after Obama's speech.  That was the main goal McCain needed to accomplish, because a day of fawning over it on the networks and cable channels could been devastating to the Reps.  Again, if they didn't do something big, I think there was a good chance the election would've been decided Thursday night.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 03:53:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Meanwhile on dKos it's soap opera time.

I have a feeling the Palin pick is going to keep getting weirder and weirder from now on.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 04:48:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the Palin pick is going to keep getting weirder and weirder from now on

THAT you can take to a bank or financial institution of your choice.

Palin wasn't vetted.  There's a reason for the vetting process which McCain is about to be a Real World supporting-evidence example.

by ATinNM on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 05:30:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, I'm inclined to think that there might well be a cover-up there, and probably in an effort to save her political career, but I'm also inclined to think they should just let it go.  I don't like the idea dragging people's kids into campaigns, unless the kids throw themselves into it, especially if they're so young.  Kids don't get a choice on being in public life, and they should be spared the scrutiny, even if their parents are elected officials.  Everybody fucks up, especially when they're kids, and we ought to just let kids be kids.

And I don't know how to approach the issue even if the kid was pregnant.  I guess you'd run with the mocking of GOP Family Values, but I think the downside is greater than the upside.  I'm not willing to go there.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 05:48:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes on both counts.

But the ironies are:

  1. If this were a Dem, the Rs would instantly be all over this story. Imagine the scandal if Obama's daughters were older and there were rumours this had happened to one of them.

  2. Fundie repub households just love their teen pregnancies - the reason this won't happen to Obama's daughters is because liberals are much better parents.

So it's just one more possible inappropriateness among many.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 06:07:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If this were a Dem, the Rs would instantly be all over this story. Imagine the scandal if Obama's daughters were older and there were rumours this had happened to one of them.

Just wait.  There will be rumors created by the right-wing about Obama's daughters if he's elected.  God help us all if they decide to have another kid in the age of photoshopping.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 06:15:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course the kids should be spared, but the campaigners cannot be.  

Goppie ´family values´ are a sick joke and should be mocked without mercy, from the divorces to the lack of parenting responsibility, to the contradictions on choice vs. lack of humane treatment during lifetime, etc.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 06:20:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Near as I can tell the only long term advantage to Palin is she solidifies a vote that McCain was going to get anyway.  If she excites the Evangelicals and Conservatives enough to re-start the GOP '04 GOTV machine then she's done as good a job as she could be expected to do.

Problem: McCain can't win with only the Evangelical and Conservative GOTV machine.  He needs Moderates and Independents.  Palin does nothing to help with these two segments and is, IMO, more likely to hurt.

Bigger Problem:  what is her affect on down ticket races?  Especially on the House and Senate?  I don't know, don't have a clue at this point.  I do know if I was a GOP congressionalcritter running a tight race for re-election I'd be livid.  Palin, running around shooting her mouth off, is exactly what I DON'T want in a tight race in a bad environment:


Congress-wo/man?  Do you think Palin is qualified to be VP?

Congress-wo/man?  Do you agree with Palin that contraception is immoral in marriages?

Congress-wo/man?  Do you agree with Palin that abortion should be banned even in cases of rape or incest?

Congress-wo/man?  Do you SUPPORT Palin as the Vice-Presidental nominee?

Again, I don't know what is going to happen but this is beginning to look like a major GOP SNAFU.

by ATinNM on Sat Aug 30th, 2008 at 05:26:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series