New single-family home completions are currently barely under the rate of home demand generated by household formation and replacement needs. Only later this year will the current suppressed level of housing starts be reflected in completion levels consistent with a rapid rate of liquidation of the inventory glut, and this, of course, assumes that current levels of demand for housing hold up.
"completion levels consistent with a rapid rate of liquidation", means "substantial drop in construction activity".
In an economy sputtering along at 1%-2%, with real income dropping for the majority of the population, and broad based unemployment at a raw 10.8% (10.3% seasonally corrected), a substantial drop in construction activity means only one thing.
Unless some new growth driver for the income/expenditure emerges between now and then. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
whether China can successfully sidestep the worst of the impact of the recession that will be coming to the US
The Chinese can weather an American recession. (17 Sept. 2007) I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
