With conventional natural gas in decline in Canada, the US and Mexico, and in Canada and the US, at least, seeming to be heading rapidly toward break-even on EROI, will the gas shale be able to take up all of the conventional production decline? I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
But the fact is that while the gas shales have been known for decades, everyone has been terribly suprised at how thing have developed during the last year or so.
Exploring and drilling for oil is by its nature an uncertain and unpredictable affair, and gas is even worse. The extent of resource is not known. Depending on a host of different factors the size could vary by one order of magnitude.
But one thing is sure (IIRC): these shales are drilling intensive. Decline rates can be very high in an individual well, at times up to 50 %. So you need to drill new wells all the time.
Hey, maybe I should buy some shares in US onshore drillers? ;) Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Or, in other words, we know next to nothing as to whether it can replace conventional natural gas as it plays out, or whether it will be a flash in the pan. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
Such is life. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
If you say that shale natural gas requires constant drilling, then its best case EROI has to be below the best case that was experienced with conventional natural gas. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
Somewhere I've read that while conventional gas is like pushing all the air out of an air matress, shale plays are more like, well, farts. ;P Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
If they are going to be flashes in the pan, there are going to be a lot of very disappointed companies out there. Coverage in the local press indicates productive lives of over 10 years for these fields. Rework of a field is less expensive, as it involves reuse of the original vertical shaft. As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
