As my boss has done a good amount of work in North Ossetia, which has long & deep ties with the Russians, so I wonder if that is true with South Osetia? I suspect there is a lot of convoluted history involved.
Can anyone say more about what is up with Georgia? Why are their claims to these countries so important that they are willing to risk war? "Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
See the first 3 words in the title of this post... "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
Welcome to the wonderfully surreal world of Western (eh, you know what I mean) journalism and politics!
I particularly enjoy the WSJ headline, "Russian Conflict Escalates: Russia and pro-U.S. ally Georgia were on the brink of war, with Russian troops and tanks moving into Georgia's breakaway province of South Ossetia."
I hope that much spinning makes them sick to their stomachs... "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
Russia overrunning Georgian positions and seizing land accomplishes nothing for Russia, because unless they occupy, they just have to give it back.
On the other hand, if you arm citizens and trigger a bloody guerrilla war, you can have a nasty ethnic fight and wash your hands of the whole affair at the same time. Once you turn two peoples against one another, you'll have a devil of a time putting the genie back in the bottle. That's what the Russians are counting on. Russian military force cannot achieve separation, in this instance. Only a bloody civil war can do that.
So, Russia renounces force, and the Georgian military does as well, and what's left? Guerrillas.
Which makes me wonder what those who are now calling for respect for Georgian territorial integrity, despite the desires of the South Ossetians, thought of the war in Chechnia. Is it a set of values which guides us, or do we simply decide what to condone and condemn based upon which side the Kremlin happens to be on?
So, Russia renounces force, and the Georgian military does as well, and what's left?
Or Georgia could do what it did today and begin attacks less than 24 hours after agreeing to cease the use of force... "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
Renouncing violence from both parties does not mean that violence ends or that tensions cease.
As in Kosovo, you always have other actors in the field ready to rile things up.
Russia doesn't gain from a full-fledged war. They gain much more by supporting rebels.
Russia will continue to foster rebels throughout the ex-Soviet states but will at times feel it necessary to demonstrate their might. Ukraine has no doubt got the message today.
