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And then, of course, there's the fact that nobody is particularly interested in seeing their capital illuminated by the soft afterglow of a mushroom cloud...

True enough.  But......

There's a continuum of coercive action that one state can take against another that runs from doing nothing to thermonuclear war.

Economic sanctions being the most likely.

A US embargo on Russian oil is a nice toothless measure (because the US imports only a small amount from Russia) that will have tremendous symbolic consequences.

It's when the big boys get into pissing matches that everybody else just gets pissed on.

Even a small, symbolic cut in Russian oil output could have a big impact on prices, because demand is so tight.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:32:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
True. But there's a long shot from a temporary oil shock to WWIII. The former I can live with. The latter... not so much.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:43:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It doesn't take much of a "temporary oil shock" to send struggling economies into a tailspin.

And in countries like China, Indonesia, and Iran maintaining subsidies for gas will be hard, and without them there's bound to be a lot of civil unrest.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Aug 8th, 2008 at 10:48:59 AM EST
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