Georgia's march into South Ossetia has prompted the Abkhazia to begin preparing for war as well. Abkhazian Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba told SPIEGEL ONLINE that his province might open up a second front. A Russian peacekeeper mans a checkpoint in the breakaway region of Abkhazia. SPIEGEL ONLINE: How is Abkhazia reacting to the events in South Ossetia? Shamba: We have a deal with South Ossetia on how we will deal with crisis situations. And we are now planning on implementing it. Our security council met all night and ordered our army to deploy this morning to the Georgian border. SPIEGEL ONLINE: Will a second front now be opened in Abkhazia? Shamba: That depends on how the situation in South Ossetia develops. We understand very well that we Abkhazians are next in line after South Ossetia. If the situation doesn't stabilize again, then we will have to open a second front. SPIEGEL ONLINE: Why did the situation suddenly escalate now to the degree it has? Shamba: After the recognition of Kosovo, the situation intensified and Georgia understands that it is losing South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Further talks will only serve to distance the two republics even further from Georgia. That's why the Georgians themselves have started to aggravate the situation, violating previous agreements and applying constant pressure. That has led to a counter response and the situation has gotten out of control. We actually expected this in Abkhazia, but now it is happening in South Ossetia.
Georgia's march into South Ossetia has prompted the Abkhazia to begin preparing for war as well. Abkhazian Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba told SPIEGEL ONLINE that his province might open up a second front.
A Russian peacekeeper mans a checkpoint in the breakaway region of Abkhazia.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: How is Abkhazia reacting to the events in South Ossetia?
Shamba: We have a deal with South Ossetia on how we will deal with crisis situations. And we are now planning on implementing it. Our security council met all night and ordered our army to deploy this morning to the Georgian border.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Will a second front now be opened in Abkhazia?
Shamba: That depends on how the situation in South Ossetia develops. We understand very well that we Abkhazians are next in line after South Ossetia. If the situation doesn't stabilize again, then we will have to open a second front.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Why did the situation suddenly escalate now to the degree it has?
Shamba: After the recognition of Kosovo, the situation intensified and Georgia understands that it is losing South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Further talks will only serve to distance the two republics even further from Georgia. That's why the Georgians themselves have started to aggravate the situation, violating previous agreements and applying constant pressure. That has led to a counter response and the situation has gotten out of control. We actually expected this in Abkhazia, but now it is happening in South Ossetia.
But it's hard to escape the notion that Georgia is keen on (i) fighting with Russia, and (ii) dragging the West in that confrontation with Russia;
We have a deal with South Ossetia on how we will deal with crisis situations.
Oh, great. I confess my grasp of European history is not what it should be, but isn't this more or less how WWI got started? A relatively small territorial dispute pulled in other powers through a web of "security arrangements," creating an ever-wider conflict? I do not have a good feeling about where this is going. Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?
I'm sort of hoping that we're not in the mood for a war right now ...
Since Georgia isn't in NATO (yet) the NATO mutual defence clause doesn't kick in, so this is likely to remain a continuing and increasingly nasty local dispute.
It will probably push up the price of oil - which (cynic mode on) is possibly one of the reasons it's happening.
Apparently, the big pipeline going through Georgia has been down for several days because of a bobm attack ... in Turkey (PKK claiming credit), but this is actually helping prices go down now, because it apeears the curt will be shorter than expected... In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
And then, of course, there's the fact that nobody is particularly interested in seeing their capital illuminated by the soft afterglow of a mushroom cloud...
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
True enough. But......
There's a continuum of coercive action that one state can take against another that runs from doing nothing to thermonuclear war.
Economic sanctions being the most likely.
A US embargo on Russian oil is a nice toothless measure (because the US imports only a small amount from Russia) that will have tremendous symbolic consequences.
It's when the big boys get into pissing matches that everybody else just gets pissed on.
Even a small, symbolic cut in Russian oil output could have a big impact on prices, because demand is so tight. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
And in countries like China, Indonesia, and Iran maintaining subsidies for gas will be hard, and without them there's bound to be a lot of civil unrest. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
The media imagery will also depend on Russia's actions. I hope they constrain themselves to South Ossetia.
Though elites are hardly acting as one anyway. A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
(To be less cryptic: As I remembered it, the murderer had more connections with the elite then it turns out. Had my memory been correct one could have argued that this murder was a symptom of french elites wanting the war. But that does not seem to be the case.) A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
Don't forget at the time nationalism had been a left-wing idea ; in 1870 the republicans were in favour of continuing the fight, against the monarchists and bonapartists who had agreed to an armistice.
Many events in France before the war can be understood as part of the war preparations against Germany : for example the Dreyfus affair started as a espionage scandal as Germany had gained access to secret artillery designs. Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
