According to the latest Figaro-TNS Sofres poll, only 34% have confidence in Sarko. However, only 37% (+2) wish Royal to play an important role - Strauss-Kahn and Jack Lang, two centre-leftists wooed by Sarko (the latter a full-blown traitor) rank above her. But, among those left of center, so does Paris mayor Delanoë ()49% -- and Trot leader Besançenot (43%, +3)!
But what's really interesting is opinion according to political orientation. Apparently, Royal is in a much closer packed top three for leftist voters, but centrists and right-wingers hate her much more than even the commie. Is this 'just' sexism? *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
She also get the local militants and federations, as opposed to the Paris barons. Lyon and Marseilles and important federations, but they are not really barons.
It still looks like 3 blocks or equal size at this point. The only hope is that thi internal election allows for an uncontsted leader to emerge, with the party coalescing around him/her. If infighting goes on after the election, it will be catastrophic.
As a side note: most of the time, when I actually read texts written by either of the socialist leaders, there's very little to quibble with on the substance (ie they are on the left and they have appropriate policy proposals) - but somehow that is not the impression conveyed by the media, not by the supposely lefy intellectual, many of which have drifted right massively (whether for political/geopolitical reasons like Glucksmann and BHL (neocons-leaning), or for economic reasons like Attali and his ilk (neolib-leaning). In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Frank Delaney ~ Ireland
Who writes the socialists' leaders' texts ? Themselves, or their advisors ? I'm not sure many of those written texts are actually read or cared about. Royal clearly said after the election that she didn't care all that much about the PS platform.
Are those lefty platforms actually defended by the PS leaders ? With all the calls for a Bayrou alliance, it's not all that clear. And it's clear the media - not only the intellectuals or the economists - have stopped to agree relaying any kind of leftish viewpoints on social and economic matters ; even Libé is often very centerish. Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
Sad that all our best reporters on French affairs are off-line when this happens
They should be tied with metaphors and whipped with analogies for their sloth. Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.
Also, it seems much of the struggle is straight about personalities, alliances, rather than anything really resembling political stances. For example, Royal getting Guerini's support is very important, not because Guerini would be anything like a heavyweight, but because the Bouches-du-Rhône PS section is one of the largest in France, carrying a lot of votes - many of which barely legitimate. The number of adhesion card given by the PS is rising fast, and not necessarily corresponding to an actual rise in live members : apparently the PS elections suffer a fair amount of manipulation. Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
And what's your take on Besancenot? *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
The first question being, is Besancenot an actual leader of the far left or just the mouthpiece of Krivine, the real boss of LCR since '68 ? (the situation in Laguiller's LO was similar, with Hardy the actual leader of that party).
Secondly, the far left has been in disarray, with the PCF getting closer to irrelevancy with each election season ; the more libertarian and ecologists elements, the "altermondialists", gravitating towards Jose Bove ; and LCR and Besancenot displacing Laguiller for the "popular far left vote".
Right now, it seems Bove is uniting with the Greens and "apolitical ecologist" Nicolas Hulot for the EP elections, thus leaving the far left political ground wide open for LCR. With European Elections, with their proportional representation and relative National irrelevance, usually marking the high tide of small parties, LCR could poll fairly high - it'll be interesting to see how much.
Besancenot may be the only real opposition voice heard regularly in the media, but I don't see LCR starting the kind of ground work necessary to create class consciousness - like what the PCF was doing in the '50s and '60s. So I'm not sure their popularity can translate to much more than the traditional - and more and more ineffective, with the current right wing media we're having - support for some more demonstration and strikes ; I don't see them helping give weight to the worker's side in the national balance of power.
As LCR is right now refusing any eventuality of government participation, there's also the danger they'd install themselves in the very comfortable position of an ineffectual, but long lasting, far left systematic opposition, which would even be worse. Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
