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*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 03:00:11 PM EST
Merkel Slams US, Britain for Blocking Tighter Financial Controls | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 20.09.2008

Speaking in Austria on Saturday, Sept 20, Merkel said her government had tried in vain to win G8 support last year for tighter regulation of hedge funds and financial oversight of capital markets, hinting that she felt vindicated in her stance as a financial disaster unfolded on Wall Street in recent days.

 

"It was said for a long time 'Let the markets take care of themselves' and that there is 'no need for more transparency'," Merkel said at a rally in Linz, where she was campaigning on behalf of the Austrian conservative People's Party (OeVP).

 

"Today we are a step further because even America and Britain are saying 'Yes, we need more transparency, we need better standards for the ratings agencies'," Merkel said.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 03:14:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could it be true? That Merkel would start to chart out a recognisably independent foreign policy? (As opposed to both blind vassaldom and haphazard opportunism that doesn't merit the term 'policy')

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 03:16:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
independent foreign policy?

Beim Geld hört die Freundschaft auf. That was all the time that way. USA and Europe were battling over economic issues always, without that that this would effect security issues, like the 'war on terror'.
So, when you hope for serious opposition let's say with regard to Afghanistan, Russia, or Iran, you should dampen your expectation.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 04:35:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was more thinking of the economy and international institutions (and don't expect a foreign policy worth its name to automatically also be one I'd support).

In my impression, when speaking of German governments rather than the EU, what you say applied to 'specific' 'money issues' like the VW Law (which, again, don't add up to policy). Even at EU level, despite the Banana Wars and other struggles, the EU line on the WTO was more or less in line with the US one. As for German governments on other international fora, by and large, you barely saw them sticking to separate positions before 2002 and after 2005. For example, not much came out of Merkel's 'Green' drive at the G8 meeting a year ago - though that experience may have taught Merkel something, like the initial altercations with Bush for Schröder.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 01:59:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To read this in the MSM... wow:

Opinion: Can a Government Lifeline Alone End the Crisis? | Business | Deutsche Welle | 19.09.2008

Greater regulation needed

So the state emerges as the savior. Initial news of the bailout led to a swift recovery. First, profits were privatized and now, losses are being socialized. With the banks saved, the whole game can start over again. That is, unless the government makes stricter regulations for the financial sector part of its rescue program.

 

The sector is always willing to be bailed out, but most unwilling to have regulations imposed on its business dealings. But without stricter monitoring and regulation, such a bailout will only plant the seeds for the next bubble on the financial markets to grow.

 

Karl Zawadzky is DW-RADIO's business editor (dc)



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 03:22:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See Section 8 of the Bailout Act


Sec. 8. Review.

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 03:37:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Lobbyists Scramble to Sway Deal

Titans of the financial industry are battling to influence the government's financial rescue plan, a package that will create new winners and losers in the sector.

Democrats in Congress want a rescue package that benefits homeowners at risk for foreclosure, not just Wall Street. Securities houses don't want executive salary limits for banks that participate in the rescue.

(...)

House Republican staffers met with roughly 15 lobbyists Friday afternoon, whose message to lawmakers was clear: Don't load the legislation up with provisions not directly related to the crisis, or regulatory measures the industry has long opposed.

"We're opposed to adding provisions that will affect [or] undermine the deal substantively," said Scott Talbott, senior vice president of government affairs at the Financial Services Roundtable, whose members include the nation's largest banks, securities firms and insurers.

A deal killer for the group: a proposal that would grant bankruptcy judges new powers to lower the principal, interest rate or both on a mortgage as part of a bankruptcy proceeding.

Give us the money and don't tell us what to do with it. Or else.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 04:09:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Fed has apparently consulted with the Bank of Finland on the Finnish Junk Bank set up after the early 90s financial crash.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 04:31:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This should be done as a debt/equity swap.

Example: Lehman had

liabilities of $613 billion and assets worth $639 billion. But nobody trusted the quality of those assets.
The net equity was $20bn. Suppose 10% of the assets are bad loans. The government appears to be ready to replace $64bn of assets with cash or treasury bonds. It should instead buy $64bn worth of equity, giving it 70% of the net equity in the resulting "healthy" company.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 05:33:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is unconstitutional, I bet.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 05:18:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Does anyone care?

Anyone 'serious', I mean.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 05:27:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
South Africa's President Mbeki accepts ANC resignation call | World News | Deutsche Welle | 20.09.2008
South African President Thabo Mbeki has agreed to resign after his African National Congress (ANC) party asked him to leave office. A statement from the presidency says that Mbeki will "step down after all constitutional requirements have been met."


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 03:35:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
NYT: South Africa's President to Quit Under Pressure (September 20, 2008)
While Saturday's action by the African National Congress's 86-member national executive committee required a day and a half of deliberations, it was actually the culmination of seven years of discontent between South Africa's most powerful politicians, Mr. Mbeki and Mr. Zuma, the man he fired in 2005 as his deputy. Last December, Mr. Zuma defeated his former boss for the congress's leadership in a vote that showed the party deeply split. With that victory, and with the African National Congress dominant in national elections, Mr. Zuma was in line to become president in 2009 when Mr. Mbeki's second term in office expired.

But many of Mr. Zuma's supporters, openly despising the president, wanted him gone sooner rather than later. A majority of the party hierarchy seemed to resist that view until a week ago when a judge's ruling in a corruption case that has long dogged Mr. Zuma tipped the balance. In that decision, the judge not only set aside the case against Mr. Zuma on procedural grounds, he pointed toward what seemed to be a pattern of vindictive political meddling in the matter by Mr. Mbeki's government.

...

But some of the seeds of Mr. Mbeki's undoing were planted [while he was deputy to Mandela]. Once in power, the party's leaders veered from their leftward leanings and did what some have called "the great U-turn," adopting policies of fiscal austerity that reassured the financial markets but postponed most efforts to aid the downtrodden.




A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 03:43:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I find this news really, truly astonishing. I mean, everyone knew the ANC would eventually split, but now? This is huge.

We live in interesting times.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 07:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
AP via Google: Explosion at Pakistan Marriott hotel kills 40
A massive suicide truck bomb devastated the heavily guarded Marriott Hotel in Pakistan's capital Saturday, killing at least 40 people and wounding at least 250. Officials feared there were dozens more dead inside the burning building.

The blast targeting the U.S. hotel chain appeared to be one of the largest terrorist attacks ever in Pakistan, leaving a vast crater some 30 feet deep in front of the main building, where rescuers ferried a stream of bloodied bodies.

...

The bombing came just hours after President Asif Ali Zardari made his first address to Parliament and days ahead of the new leader's meeting with President Bush Tuesday in New York on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly.




A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 03:39:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[Torygraph Alert] : Tzipi Livni warned she has the last chance for peace with Palestinians
Prospective Israeli prime minister Tzipi Livni holds the last chance for peace in the country, senior Palestinian officials have warned.

Rafik Husseini, the top advisor to the Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, has told The Sunday Telegraph that Palestinian politicians may take the drastic step of disbanding the authority if a lasting agreement is not reached during the current peace negotiations.

Such a move would mark the end of the US-backed talks launched with much fanfare at Annapolis last November. and put day-to-day Palestinian governance back in Israeli hands, almost certainly igniting fresh violence in the process.




A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 04:37:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
AFP via Google: Britain to help Zimbabwe only if there is 'genuine' power-sharing
British Ambassador to the UN John Sawers said Friday that London was ready to support Zimbabwe's recovery but only if "genuine" power-sharing is fully implemented.

"We are ready to support Zimbabwe's recovery ... but we clearly have to see a commitment that the tragic policies pursued in Zimbabwe in recent years have come to an end and that there is a genuine effort to share power with those who were elected in the March election," he told reporters.

He spoke after attending a UN Security Council briefing by UN troubleshooter Haile Menkerios, who monitored the South African-mediated talks in Harare that produced the power-sharing accord.



A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 04:39:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Times Online: Judge clears way for Barclays deal with Lehman
Value written down to $1.35 billion because of market volatility

A bankruptcy judge today decided that Lehman Brothers can sell its investment banking and trading businesses to Barclays, the first major step to wind down America's fourth-largest investment bank.

...

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed the biggest bankruptcy in US history on Monday after Barclays plc declined to buy the whole of the investment bank. Barclays will take control of Lehman units that employ about 9,000 in the US. "Not only is the sale a good match economically, but it will save the jobs of thousands of employees," said Harvey Miller, a lawyer for Lehman.



A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 04:52:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Buffett in $4.7bn deal for Constellation

Warren Buffett has made his first move in response to the latest round of credit market turbulence by agreeing to buy $4.7bn Constellation Energy Group, a US power company whose shares have been hammered over fears of a lack of liquidity in its commodities trading business.

MidAmerican Energy, a holding company of energy assets that is majority-owned by Mr Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, agreed on Thursday to buy Constellation for $26.50 a share - at less than half the company's market value a week ago.


Buffet is a freaking genius, as usual. Constellation has about 9000 MW of which 5500 is nuclear. Located in the US Northeast!!! The nuclear plants alone should be worth about $15-20 billion... And he gets them for less than $5 billion.

But EdF holds 9,5 % of Constellation energy...

EDF set to launch bid for US group

EDF of France is planning to go on the offensive to protect its foothold in the US with an offer for Constellation Energy, the electricity utility that agreed on Thursday to a $4.7bn (€3.2bn) takeover by billionaire investor Warren Buffett.

The board of the French utility agreed in an emergency meeting on Friday to back a joint bid with a US partner, as required under US regulations.


So who'll win, the worlds richest man and shrewdest investor, or the most powerful utility in the world, supported by the financing power of the French state?

No matter what this is a major league f*ck-up by the Constellation management who has lost one of the most promising companies in the US for chump change. All because of a stupid business model which resulted in a exposure of $120 million to commodities contracts with Lehman, which in turn led to rumors and violent speculation against the company.

Why the company didn't ask for a capital injection from its shareholders instead of selling it to Buffet I have no idea.

And imagine I did some research on this company a year or two ago to see if I should buy some shares because the generation portfolio is just beautiful. Thankfully I bought Exelon instead.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 07:42:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing to do with Lehman and everything to do with Financial "Innovation":
"These companies don't go bankrupt because of losses, they go bankrupt because of a lack of cash," Shimko said. "They could be making a billion dollars on trades, but if they can't post collateral it will all unravel."

Constellation's worries started last month not so much because of instability in its business but because of questions about how much the company would have to set aside if its credit soured. When executives said they had underestimated collateral requirements in the event of a credit downgrade, S&P promptly reduced the company's rating, from BBB+, saying the revelation showed "a lapse in the company's risk management and control process."

The downgrade required Constellation to post about $106 million in additional collateral with its trading partners.

(Source: Baltimore Sun)

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 08:04:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is it so freaking hard for management to understand that utilities should generate power, not pretend to be brokers?

If they want to do that stuff they should quit their jobs and start working for an investment bank (if there are any left).

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 08:08:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Anyone wanna bet that the first things Buffet/EdF does when the company is bought is to close down the energy trading section...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 08:11:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EDF does trading too. It's part of the business, in the world as it is today. It just requires risk management and doing only what you actually understand.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 03:41:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Constellation understood the instruments they were trading - what they didn't understand was the need to set aside enough cash to increase their collateral in case of a credit downgrade, which apparently is also what took AIG down.

This is interesting because counterparty risk is relatively well understood, but the risk of yourself being downgraded seems not to be.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 05:22:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trading is needed, but what I meant is that it won't be the main business anymore, instead an instrument for hedging rather than profit.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 10:03:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the part with the biggest cash flow. The error was not to set aside enough collateral.

Also, as long as Constellation operates in "liberalised" energy markets (US, UK), they have to have an energy trading section.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 05:24:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Power companies generally need to engage in a bit of futures trading to keep their costs stable. At some point some idiot decides that rather than a way of hedging their exposure to price risks, it should be a source of profits, and they turn into leveraged traders, with all the dangers that involves.  
by MarekNYC on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 08:40:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In these discussions I always like to quote from the standard textbooks of the field. For instance, to get anywhere near a job dealing with derivatives you have to convince people that you have read Hull's Options, Futures and Other Derivatives. I built a diary around an extended quotation from it called This Should Never Have Happened. There I quoted from the Lessons for Financial Institutions. But there are also Lessons for nonfinancial corporations:

  • Make sure you fully understand the trades that you are doing
  • Make sure a hedger does not become a speculator
  • Be cautious about making the treasury department a profit centre
And lessons for all users of derivatives

  • Define risk limits
  • Take the Risk Limits Seriously
  • Do not assume you can outguess the market
  • Do not underestimate the benefits of diversification
  • Carry out scenario analysis and stress tests
The issue is that if a competitor eschews all these sensible practices they can undercut you and drive you out of business the old-fashioned way before they go out of business in a bang of their derivative portfolio. So once one competitor starts flouting risk standards, the whole sector goes to the dogs, and normally it then becomes a question of who is better capitalised when the shit hits the fan.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 07:08:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When executives said they had underestimated collateral requirements in the event of a credit downgrade, S&P promptly reduced the company's rating, from BBB+, saying the revelation showed "a lapse in the company's risk management and control process."

Constellation says "we're not in a good position to face a downgrade by S&P" and S&P, on hearing this says "okay, I'll downgrade you".

Is S&P stupid?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 07:21:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is S&P stupid?

Well judging on how relentlessly positive they've been about organisations who have heavily invested in securities that have been little better than toilet paper, if that then you'd have to say you've good evidence to say yes.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 07:41:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Stupid is as stupid does.

S&P got into a heap of trouble following the Enron crack-up by not looking past the companies financial (mis-) statements to the underlying reality.  So to avoid that mistake they are going to quickly down rate companies on the edge and by down rating those companies they drop their debt rating below 'investment grade.'  Once that happens insurance companies & etc. are forced to sell the paper, driving the interest rates of that paper up, increasing the cost of the debt, & so on through the downward spiral making the ratings downgrade a self-fulfilling prediction.

Which "proves" the ratings system "works."  (For a low value of "proof" and "works.")

I, for one, sit back and marvel at the asininity of it all.
 

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 08:05:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Credit ratings should be taken out of the centre of financial regulation, which is where they have been put over the past few years.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 09:14:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You don't think having private companies effectively setting determining the global interest rate schedule is a good idea?  As we all know the Unobservable Foot¹ of the Market does just fine.  Look at the US and UK for proof.

¹  My humble suggestion for updating the 'Invisible Hand' metaphor.

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 09:33:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it is an atrocious idea. Almost as bad as personal credit rating.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 01:23:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't Buffet have a large position in S&P? Or was it Moodys?

</tinfoil hat>

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 10:04:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EDF decided to not bid. Not sure why. But they are certainly showing a lot of reasonable restraint in potential take-overs, given what you'd expect from a cash-rich State-owned utility...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 03:42:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A bit strange... From my completely unprofessional view Constellation is an order of magnitude more attractive than British Energy. Especially considering the (very low vs. very hig) price, the quality of the generation portfolio (high vs. mediocre) and the fact that Constellation has the UniStar joint venture with EdF, which Areva is to sell an EPR.

I think Buffet just was faster and more nimble than EdF.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 10:08:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nuclear energy is heavily political and government related. I would suppose that EDF is more confident of getting a political hearing in London than in the US...

Plus, BE is really a real estate deal (ie sites already approved for nuclear plant construction), not a purchase of existing assets.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 02:21:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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