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Is it so freaking hard for management to understand that utilities should generate power, not pretend to be brokers?

If they want to do that stuff they should quit their jobs and start working for an investment bank (if there are any left).

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 08:08:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Anyone wanna bet that the first things Buffet/EdF does when the company is bought is to close down the energy trading section...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 08:11:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EDF does trading too. It's part of the business, in the world as it is today. It just requires risk management and doing only what you actually understand.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 03:41:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Constellation understood the instruments they were trading - what they didn't understand was the need to set aside enough cash to increase their collateral in case of a credit downgrade, which apparently is also what took AIG down.

This is interesting because counterparty risk is relatively well understood, but the risk of yourself being downgraded seems not to be.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 05:22:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trading is needed, but what I meant is that it won't be the main business anymore, instead an instrument for hedging rather than profit.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 10:03:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the part with the biggest cash flow. The error was not to set aside enough collateral.

Also, as long as Constellation operates in "liberalised" energy markets (US, UK), they have to have an energy trading section.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 05:24:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Power companies generally need to engage in a bit of futures trading to keep their costs stable. At some point some idiot decides that rather than a way of hedging their exposure to price risks, it should be a source of profits, and they turn into leveraged traders, with all the dangers that involves.  
by MarekNYC on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 08:40:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In these discussions I always like to quote from the standard textbooks of the field. For instance, to get anywhere near a job dealing with derivatives you have to convince people that you have read Hull's Options, Futures and Other Derivatives. I built a diary around an extended quotation from it called This Should Never Have Happened. There I quoted from the Lessons for Financial Institutions. But there are also Lessons for nonfinancial corporations:

  • Make sure you fully understand the trades that you are doing
  • Make sure a hedger does not become a speculator
  • Be cautious about making the treasury department a profit centre
And lessons for all users of derivatives

  • Define risk limits
  • Take the Risk Limits Seriously
  • Do not assume you can outguess the market
  • Do not underestimate the benefits of diversification
  • Carry out scenario analysis and stress tests
The issue is that if a competitor eschews all these sensible practices they can undercut you and drive you out of business the old-fashioned way before they go out of business in a bang of their derivative portfolio. So once one competitor starts flouting risk standards, the whole sector goes to the dogs, and normally it then becomes a question of who is better capitalised when the shit hits the fan.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 07:08:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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