Display:
Power companies generally need to engage in a bit of futures trading to keep their costs stable. At some point some idiot decides that rather than a way of hedging their exposure to price risks, it should be a source of profits, and they turn into leveraged traders, with all the dangers that involves.  
by MarekNYC on Sat Sep 20th, 2008 at 08:40:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In these discussions I always like to quote from the standard textbooks of the field. For instance, to get anywhere near a job dealing with derivatives you have to convince people that you have read Hull's Options, Futures and Other Derivatives. I built a diary around an extended quotation from it called This Should Never Have Happened. There I quoted from the Lessons for Financial Institutions. But there are also Lessons for nonfinancial corporations:

  • Make sure you fully understand the trades that you are doing
  • Make sure a hedger does not become a speculator
  • Be cautious about making the treasury department a profit centre
And lessons for all users of derivatives

  • Define risk limits
  • Take the Risk Limits Seriously
  • Do not assume you can outguess the market
  • Do not underestimate the benefits of diversification
  • Carry out scenario analysis and stress tests
The issue is that if a competitor eschews all these sensible practices they can undercut you and drive you out of business the old-fashioned way before they go out of business in a bang of their derivative portfolio. So once one competitor starts flouting risk standards, the whole sector goes to the dogs, and normally it then becomes a question of who is better capitalised when the shit hits the fan.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 07:08:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series