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by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 09:34:18 PM EST
Egypt abduction talks 'ongoing' | BBC News

Egypt says negotiations are still ongoing to secure the release of 19 people abducted in southern Egypt.

A cabinet spokesman said that an earlier announcement by the foreign minister that they had been freed and were safe and well was premature.

The group includes five Italians, five Germans and a Romanian, along with eight Egyptians.

The government says they were taken across the border into Sudan, and the hostage takers have demanded a ransom.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 09:37:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Head of watchdog resigns as number of babies in hospital from tainted milk rises to 13,000 | The Guardian
· Over 40,000 treated in melamine scandal
· Countries across Asia ban or recall imported goods

Almost 13,000 Chinese babies are in hospital after consuming tainted baby milk, and a further 40,000-plus have been treated, in a scandal which yesterday led to the resignation of the head of the country's quality watchdog, according to state media.

The scandal, which began when dozens of babies suffered kidney stones and even kidney failure after drinking a popular brand that contained the chemical melamine, has since spread to more than 20 companies and affected products including fresh milk, yoghurt and ice-cream.

Countries across Asia are checking imported dairy products from China. Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong have already banned or recalled a variety of milk products. Taiwan banned all mainland dairy products on Sunday. In Hong Kong Nestlé, the world's largest food company, said it had recalled a UHT pure milk product after a local food watchdog discovered samples containing a tiny amount of the chemical melamine.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 09:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
there's an interesting metaphor between the melamine added to fake higher protein content in dried milk, and the 'toxic paper' that has been polluting the world financial system.

sneak the poison in with the 'good stuff', so peoples' confidence is artificially boosted, while they and their children (mostly the latter) are slowly killed.

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 06:30:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm interested to see how this plays out. Parents of children who were killed by badly built schools in the recent earthquake and wanted those guilty of corruption and fraud punished have been arrested or threatened.

So will china allow this go on for a week and then stamp on it.

After all, the govt doesn't want anything to interfere with the global image of china as the thrusting new superpower. Pictures of grieving parents accusing Party bosses of corruption doesn't look good. And seeing as it's the system itself that is rotten and makes this stuff inevitable, there's not gonna be any change.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 06:49:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So far the pattern of this event is that it has gotten much bigger than the earthquake problem, mediawise... that may make it harder to suppress.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 07:02:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They will close the guilty factory, sentence to death its director, make a lot of noise about it, and forget about food regulation until the next crisis strikes.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 08:11:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
on the last point:

Jerome a Paris: forget about food regulation until the next crisis strikes.

Just like the financial meltdown on Wall Street, this food scandal is exceptional in scope and impact.

First of all, China is huge.  Four times bigger than Europe or the USA, population-wise.  Lots of people, lots of companies, lots of things to look over, in a ridiculously fast changing, churning environment.  Food regulation is carried out locally, but there is growing central government involvement.  And this scandal for sure will accelerate that.

Second, it's not liked developed countries like the U.S., Japan, Italy, and others haven't had, and continue to have, their own food contamination issues in recent years.  And China is not even a developed country yet.

Third, as metatone points out above, this story is all over the media.  Huge front page spreads on major dailies.  They've started tamping it down on TV because of too much rage on internet bulletin boards.  The government knows this is a big fuck-up, and just as they did already this year with the New Year's blizzards and the earthquake, they are choosing to tackle this problem head-on.

Helen makes a good point about how the government has shamefully smothered the school construction scandal in Sichuan, in part by paying off or intimidating parents into shutting up about it.  And it would be a good bet that if this milk tainting were local and isolatable, they would do the same here; since it is so widespread, the government has no choice but to deal with it openly.  That is obviously cynical of them.

But that does not change the fact that food quality is improving here, and although China still has far too many of these, it will have fewer and fewer of them over time, as an increasingly aware, demanding, and numerous middle class insists on better quality.  And as the government continues to get sick of losing so much face in the eyes of the world.

Point n'est besoin d'espérer pour entreprendre, ni de réussir pour persévérer. - Charles le Téméraire

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 09:44:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
marco: Four times bigger than Europe or the USA, population-wise.

China's population is definitely not "four times" bigger than Europe's, but slightly less than twice Europe's population, and 2.5 times bigger than the EU's.

Point n'est besoin d'espérer pour entreprendre, ni de réussir pour persévérer. - Charles le Téméraire

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 09:51:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, looking at China Daily, one government 'response' seems to be stepping up alti-Dalai-Lama propaganda...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 10:29:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Japan's Banks to the Rescue - BusinessWeek

On Sept. 22, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Japan's largest bank, said it's considering a multibillion dollar investment for up to 20% of Morgan Stanley. The news comes only a month after MUFG moved to beef up its U.S. presence with a $3.5-billion purchase of the 35% of UnionBanCal that it didn't already own.

Separately, Nomura Holdings, Japan's biggest brokerage, confirmed today it will buy Lehman Brothers' Asia operations--absorbing the 3,000 employees in the Asia-Pacific region but not the trading assets or liabilities--for an undisclosed amount.

A decade ago, it would have been hard to imagine.

<...>

Japanese financial institutions may finally be serious about growing beyond their home market, where the population is aging and the industry's prospects aren't all that promising. One reason they still have the resources is that they escaped the subprime U.S. mortgage implosion with barely a scratch. The 80s debacle had made them cautious, so they had steered clear of the reckless bets that got the U.S. banks in trouble.

In fact, they had seen this coming since at least last January.  Too bad the U.S. government hadn't -- or at least didn't care to do much about it.

Point n'est besoin d'espérer pour entreprendre, ni de réussir pour persévérer. - Charles le Téméraire

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 09:52:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Stocks Fall as Rescue Plan Is Negotiated | NY Times

WASHINGTON -- Senate and House Democratic leaders said on Monday that they had reached an agreement on their conditions for approving a $700 billion rescue plan for the financial system, including more oversight of the program and a requirement that the government do more to help troubled borrowers refinance their mortgages.

But even as Congressional Democrats and the administration began to narrow their differences, Democrats are bracing for a battle over efforts to limit the pay of executives whose firms seek help and over whether to grant bankruptcy judges authority to modify the mortgages of borrowers in danger of foreclosure.

Investors were skeptical. Concerns that the bailout plan may not move smoothly through Congress contributed to the anxiety in the markets that pushed the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 372 points and pushed crude oil up more than $16 a barrel.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 09:52:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bailout's Engineers Face a Dilemma | Washington Post

As the government weighs how to bail out the financial sector, the engineers of the plan face a dilemma.

The higher the prices the government pays for troubled mortgage securities held by banks, the more the rescue will bolster those banks and sustain the lending that is vital to the broader economy. But higher prices would also mean a worse deal for taxpayers.

In other words, the more effective the plan, the more expensive it will ultimately be.

Under both the Bush administration's proposal and many of the variations finding favor among Democrats, the government would buy up to $700 billion in shaky assets now on the books of financial companies. As the government does so, it will be forced to grapple with the same question that has vexed the brightest minds on Wall Street for more than a year: What are the darn things worth?

The very reason for the financial crisis of the last 14 months is that no one knows for sure. Wall Street created securities so complex that their value can swing wildly depending on what happens to the overall housing market. For example, a particular type of mortgage-backed security might offer a giant payout if home prices only drop another 10 percent, but be worthless if they drop another 15 percent.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 09:54:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the more effective the plan, the more expensive it will ultimately be.

Effective at what, exactly? Saving bankers? Yep.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 04:12:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This pisses me off to no end because we now have new internal rules that are going to certainly limit our ability to lend to projects in the near future - which means that the sectors of banks that did nothing stupid and never lost money are being penalised (and of course, the bosses that oversaw the stupidest stuff are still there).

Sigh...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 04:14:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Foreign Nations Pledge Support, but Not Financing  | NY Times

WASHINGTON -- The United States, having expanded its proposed rescue of the financial sector to include foreign banks, has not yet found any other country willing to join the landmark bailout.

The Treasury Department still hopes to marshal a worldwide effort to cleanse the balance sheets of banks. But Europe and Japan have signaled that they are not ready to mount a rescue of the kind being debated here.

Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. continues to solicit support from foreign governments. His department plans to prod them by giving preference to banks from countries that show a willingness to help the American effort, a senior administration official said Monday.

"We expect other countries to do their part, but we're not insisting their programs be exactly like ours," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "We're certainly not prepared to put ourselves in a position where there's a free-rider problem."

Given that the mortgage collapse began here and that most of the distressed debt is held by American banks, specialists said it was not clear that the United States had much leverage in forcing others to take part.

"There's a view in Europe that this is a U.S.-made problem, and that it should be solved in the U.S.," said Charles H. Dallara, the managing director of the Institute for International Finance, a group of 340 global banks.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 09:56:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

 "We're certainly not prepared to put ourselves in a position where there's a free-rider problem."

Bankers are not free-riders, they are a vital part of the economy (the one that holds the gun to your head)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 04:16:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
this bailout, the longer i think about it, the phrase 'perfect crime' keeps popping in my head.

paulson makes a great 'dr. doom', straight from central casting, better than chertoff even, hell, better than rudy!

'we've cracked it, the blame is too diffused to haunt us, we've taken the world's savings hostage, and we're holding an ak-47 to the head of anyone who wants to threaten our getting away with the hooch...(evil cackle)

the other phrase that recurs to the point of agony, is 'too big to fail'...

the images engendered by that are surreal.

the most recent and compelling is an elephant stepping out onto thinning ice!

i mean really, they were too big to fail, they failed anyway, so the recipe for success is to hand them a fat cheque, (just for aperitivo), unlimited political over-ride power, and total freedom from accountability by rule of law.

makes total sense, huh?

the sopranos were such amateurs...

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 06:41:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm sure I've mentioned this before, but during the 80's there was an episode of World in Action, (The major commercial channel current affairs program, the equivalent of the BBC's panorama) where one of the big 60's UK gangsters was released from prison, they took him out to show them where all the crooks were in modern day London.

He took them to the city of London and gave a speach, which was sampled into a late 80's dance track.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 09:29:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
After a bit of a hunt the relevent quotes taken from the song lyrics.

Polychronicon of Adeeva: Two thieves and a liar

"I've done a few dealings in the city
met a number of stockbrokers
and i can tell you in all my life that i've never seen
such dishonesty and greed
it's like a big betting shop a bookies a casino
where the're all screwing each other and the rest of the world"

Polychronicon of Adeeva: Two thieves and a liar

"when the jews and italian communities went to america right
they landed in a new country that was ripe for organisation and for rackets
now in this country thats not possible
because the real power the real money the real rackets
have been going on over here for hundreds of years
all stitched up and passed on from generation to generation
and the american gangsters right,
theyr'e still struggling to get the respectability that theyr'e after
but we've had three centuries headstart on those buggers
and look haven't we done a beautiful job of it an' all
i bet you there are millions of people right that think
that the blokes who work here in the city are really good blokes
hard working who have got the economy of this nation deep in their hearts
what a load of cobblers it's the best confidence trick in history"


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 10:10:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com / In depth - Fears emerge over $700bn rescue

The dollar buckled, stocks tumbled and the price of oil jumped on Monday as the $700bn (£376bn) US government bail-out plan for the financial sector made slow progress in Washington and once-mighty Wall Street names turned to Japan to safeguard their future.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve threw open the doors to investment in the US banking industry by private equity firms, sovereign wealth funds and corporate investors - in the hope that this would direct much-needed capital to US banks.

After the roar, the whimper?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 01:32:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Buffett's time bomb goes off on Wall Street | U.S. | Reuters

But credit default swaps -- complex derivatives originally designed to protect banks from deadbeat borrowers -- are adding to the turmoil.

"This was supposedly a way to hedge risk," says Ellen Brown, the author of the book "Web of Debt."

"I'm sure their predictive models were right as far as the risk of the things they were insuring against. But what they didn't factor in was the risk that the sellers of this protection wouldn't pay ... That's what we're seeing now."

Brown is hardly alone in her criticism of the derivatives. Five years ago, billionaire investor Warren Buffett called them a "time bomb" and "financial weapons of mass destruction" and directed the insurance arm of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) to exit the business.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 01:58:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I fully concur.
I was interviewing people some time ago about CDS for a project in which I am a consultant. We had a "no-understanding" moment when I tried to ask about how the risk profile of the CDS originator was priced.

They explained that there was a market for CDS indeed but that it's the risk of the counterpart that is priced (in case I hadn't got that).
After I reworded they saw that I had got that. And they admitted that, indeed, some CDS had become worthless because the originator had defaulted. But apparently that was never taken into account in the pricing.

Look, I had at that time only 6 months of working experience in a banking environment, the first 4 of which being on HR projects. And it did not even take me a couple of seconds to see the problem. I can only see two possibilities:
-People involved in those markets saw the problem and deliberately pretended it wasn't there (they sure didn't make much noise about it).
-To work in derivatives, there is a requirement that, even though you must be mathematically proficient, you must be terminally stupid and unable to understand any of the figures you process.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 05:21:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think there is a bit of both:

  • Certainly as Jerome notes, many people knew there were problems and turned a blind eye. The head of Citigroup was quoted saying "while the music is playing, we'll keep dancing"...

  • I've observed amongst the quants I've known that many times they are systematically excluded from understanding the connection between the systems they create and the "market realities" involved. In part this is an issue of IP, the people in charge don't want the quants to understand too much of the model, in case they go work for someone else. But I also believe in part it's because they want to restrict the labour power of the quants they employ too.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 05:41:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That, and, at least in France, it is not unheard for Mathematicians to have a weak grasp of the realities they model, already in Physics. No reason why it'd be different in Finance, where the "realities" are even further from common sense.

In my experience, the computer programmers were often barely aware of such concepts as "what's a CDS"...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 09:15:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
China paper urges new currency order after financial tsunami | U.S. | Reuters

BEIJING (Reuters) - Threatened by a "financial tsunami," the world must consider building a financial order no longer dependent on the United States, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Wednesday.

The commentary in the overseas edition of the People's Daily said the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.P: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) "may augur an even larger impending global 'financial tsunami'."

The People's Daily is the official newspaper of China's ruling Communist Party, and the overseas edition is a smaller circulation offshoot of the main paper.

Its pronouncements do not necessarily directly reflect leadership views, but this commentary by a professor at Shanghai's Tongji University suggested considerable official alarm at the strains buckling world financial markets.

China's central bank earlier this week cut its lending rate for the first time in six years, a move analysts said was aimed at bolstering the economy and the battered stock market.

"The eruption of the U.S. sub-prime crisis has exposed massive loopholes in the United States' financial oversight and supervision," writes the commentator, Shi Jianxun.

"The world urgently needs to create a diversified currency and financial system and fair and just financial order that is not dependent on the United States."

Tried to find this on the People's Daily but couldn't.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 02:11:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Retirees Filling the Front Line in Market Fears - NYTimes.com
Older Americans with investments are among the hardest hit by the turmoil in the financial markets and have the least opportunity to recover.

As companies have switched from fixed pensions to 401(k) accounts, retirees risk losing big chunks of their wealth and income in a single day's trading, as many have in the last month.

"There's a terrified older population out there," said Alicia H. Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. "If you're 45 and the market goes down, it bothers you, but it comes back. But if you're retired or about to retire, you might have to sell your assets before they have a chance to recover. And people don't have the luxury of being in bonds because they don't yield enough for how long we live."

Today's retirees have less money in savings, longer life expectancies and greater exposure to market risk than any retirees since World War II. Even before the last week of turmoil, 39 percent of retirees said they expected to outlive their savings, up from 29 percent in 2007, according to a survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, an industry-sponsored group in Washington.

"This really highlights the new world of retirement," said Richard Johnson, a principal research associate at the Urban Institute in Washington. "It's a much riskier world for retirees, because people don't have defined-benefit plans. They have pots of money and they have to worry about making it last."



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 03:43:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is by DESIGN. The endless promotion of 'market based' retirement savings works very well to tie large chunks of the population to the performance of stock indices, and must contribute to more players seeming 'too big/important to fail'. After all, it is not just the money of the rich and fabulous in the market. It is also mom and pop, and their meagre 401Ks. Which could lead to convenient 'solidarity' for bailouts. Let's not forget how eager the market enthusiasts were to attempt to move even national retirement schemes (social security in the US) to market based rather than defined benefit plans. Fortunately they were not as successful as they might have been.
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 04:16:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed. And I remember hearing people in the 90s saying that stocks would never fall again because the constant influx of retirement money would keep prices rising indefinitely.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 04:27:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hah! Surely the "demographic crisis" and the "baby boomer bulge" always implied the opposite?

That's what I feared anyway.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 04:54:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What a very odd remark.

Even if there hadn't been a baby boomer bulge, this is saying:
-that prices would keep rising even though stocks would become obviously overvalued. So retirement money would end up going into the fund of lowest return.
-the inflow would always greatly exceed the outflow.

You are what you choose to believe...

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 05:44:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is odd, what can I say?

Except that a lot of people drank that kool-aid.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 06:48:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Russian Warships Sail to Venezuela - NYTimes.com

A squadron from the Russian Navy's North Sea Fleet sailed for Venezuela on Monday, a Russian Navy spokesman said, in a bid by Russia to bolster military links in Latin America as relations with the United States continue to deteriorate.

The convoy -- including the nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser Peter the Great and the anti-submarine ship Admiral Chabanenko -- left the fleet's base in Severomorsk bound for the Venezuelan coast, where the ships will take part in joint maneuvers with the Venezuelan Navy sometime in November, said Igor Dygalo, a Russian Navy spokesman.



Point n'est besoin d'espérer pour entreprendre, ni de réussir pour persévérer. - Charles le Téméraire
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 10:31:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The bailout: A hundred billion here, there, everywhere
10:14 PM, September 22, 2008  LA Times Money & Co. blog

The numbers coming out of Washington in the last few weeks have been so huge, it all begins to sound like Monopoly money.

Too bad it's all real, and mostly coming from taxpayers' pockets -- if not right away, then down the line.

-skip-

Here is a handy tally from Merrill Lynch & Co. economists of the money now committed as part of the financial-system bailout:

--- Treasury commitment to buy mortgage-related assets from banks: $700 billion.

--- Treasury capital commitment to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: up to $200 billion.

--- Expansion of temporary dollar "swap" lines with foreign central banks: $180 billion.

--- Treasury fortifying of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet: $100 billion.

--- Federal Reserve loan to American International Group: $85 billion.

--- Treasury commitment to insure money market mutual funds: $50 billion.

--- Federal Reserve loans to banks via discount window: $33 billion.

--- Federal Reserve loans to securities dealers: $20 billion.

--- Treasury initial planned purchases of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities: $10 billion.

 Only $1.4 Trillion so far!

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 01:46:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the problem ? That's only 18 months of Iraq.

But don't worry, the ex-editor of the Economist rides to the rescue in the Guardian

Guardian - Bill Emmott - The US can afford to pay for this rescue

There has been much hyperactive talk about how vast the US rescue plan is, and how earth-shattering will be the extension of government that it represents. This is misleading: the rescue is indeed very large, but so is the American economy. The federal government is already in debt to the tune of $5.4 trillion, which sounds impossibly large if you don't realise that the US's annual GDP is nearly $14 trillion. This isn't Italy, in other words: there is room to add another few trillion to the debt.

The annual cost on the budget deficit in the first year could be $700bn, larger even than the impact of the Iraq war. But that, too, is misleading if you don't realise that the US federal deficit currently is less than 3% of GDP - smaller than Britain's (3.8%). Similarly, this extra debt is unlikely, of itself, to lead to a new decline in the dollar, as some have predicted

Phew ! We're saved, the neoliberals have ridden to our rescue.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 06:59:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
when the Economist will use that same argument when a $700 billion plan to provide single payer health care, or to invest massively in public transport is brought forward.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 08:15:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, they could propose how to pay for it out of money that could conceivably be raised: enact a 30% wealth tax on all individuals with assets worth more than $20 million or couples with assets worth more than $40 million and all family trusts.  In the case of illiquid assets such as real estate, make it a garnishment payable at death. In the case of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, etc. require payment in kind.  

What is left over after setting accounts on Wall Street aright could be use to set Medicare and Social Security on sound footings through the retirement of the baby boomers and finance the reconstruction of our energy and transportation infrastructure.  I don't have the hard figures, but my sense of wealth distribution and absolute wealth suggests that 30% would be adequate.

This plan would have two outstanding advantages:

  1. Those who brought us this calamity would end up paying for it.
  2. It would provide wealthy citizens a powerful motive to insist on "responsible government regulation" of financial entities for at least a couple of generations.


As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 10:22:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Iran president blames Wall Street turmoil on U.S. 'military engagement' - Los Angeles Times
NEW YORK -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared Monday that the turmoil on Wall Street was rooted in part in U.S. military intervention abroad and voiced hope that the next American administration would retreat from what he called President Bush's "logic of force."

He also asserted, in an interview with The Times, that Israel was doomed like "an airplane that has lost its engine" and that Western intelligence documents questioning the peaceful purpose of Iran's nuclear program were crude forgeries.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 01:53:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
World leaders renew promises to help Africa | International | Reuters

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - World leaders and top officials on Monday renewed pledges to help Africa dramatically reduce poverty, but African governments told rich nations they are lagging on previous promises of increased aid.

In a political declaration after a U.N. meeting on Africa's development needs, countries pledged to mobilize resources to end poverty, hunger and underdevelopment.

"We stress that eradicating poverty, particularly in Africa, is the greatest global challenge facing the world today," they said.

The meeting expressed concern that commitments by rich industrialized nations of doubling aid to Africa by 2010 will not be reached, while also welcoming new aid flows from emerging economies and the private sector.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 01:56:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When I see a $700 billion commitment, I will believe it's more than words.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 03:39:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
White House presses for swift action by Congress on bailout
As turmoil continues on Wall Street, the Bush administration must accommodate Democratic demands.
By Peter G. Gosselin and Richard Simon, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
September 23, 2008
WASHINGTON -- Rushing to win quick congressional -- and public -- approval for its $700-billion bailout of the tottering financial system, the Bush administration moved toward compromises Monday that would have been inconceivable even a few weeks ago, including new aid for debt- laden homeowners.

But even as negotiators signaled that some version of the bailout bill would almost certainly pass, perhaps this week, the financial markets threatened to pop another rivet.

The Dow Jones industrial average sank 372.25 points, or 3.3%, on Monday after climbing nearly 800 points over two days last week on initial word of the rescue proposal. As many investors shifted money from stocks to commodities as the trading week began, the price of oil, gold and other commodities soared, while the dollar plunged against other major currencies.

Meanwhile, President Bush ratcheted up pressure for a deal.

"The whole world is watching to see if we can act quickly to shore up our markets and prevent damage to . . . businesses, our housing sector and retirement accounts," he said in a statement.

The action now centers on bargaining between Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson and Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

Although the measure must also pass the Senate, the administration has apparently calculated that if it can win House approval, senators will go along. Administration officials are understood to have had only a few conversations with Frank's Senate counterpart, Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.

Frank laid out the price of his support for the government bailout Sunday in a 42-page draft that congressional staffers and administration officials said was now the working document for negotiations.

In a briefing for reporters, Frank said agreement had been reached in several broad areas, among them: creation of an independent oversight board to monitor the Treasury Department's handling of the bailout and a requirement that the department seek to minimize home foreclosures by slicing the interest rate and even the outstanding loan amount of many of the troubled mortgages it buys.

Frank said at the early afternoon briefing that he and Paulson had also agreed to a Democratic proposal for Washington to get rights to buy stock in the companies whose troubled assets the government buys. That would allow taxpayers to benefit from increases in the companies' stock prices. But by the end of the day Frank indicated that an obstacle to agreement on such a provision had developed, though he didn't elaborate.

House Democrats and the Bush administration also remained far apart on several crucial issues.

For example, Frank wants to give the government the power to cap the compensation of executives of the firms helped by the bailout.

"I just think it is inconceivable . . . that the taxpayer should put money at risk because of bad decisions made by people who would then continue to be rewarded without any restriction," Frank said.



As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 01:58:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hi ARGeezer, thanks for all the links you are posting in the Salon and elsewhere on ET!

However, for copyright reasons it would be better to limit the amount of paragraphs you post. As a rule of thumb we recommend to post 3-5 paragraphs, not more, just to be on the safe side. People can always use the link to read the entire article. :-)

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 02:08:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the rule of thumb.  I will try to follow it.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 02:14:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One possible problem for the Administration is that Barney Frank is the first openly gay Member of Congress.    The Administration might fear that their homophobic base will get upset if they thing that the Administration is being, umm, "bested" by Barney.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 02:16:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Japan's ruling party hopes Aso will restore its reputation | csmonitor.com

Tokyo - He's a veteran politician known for his unruly tongue and gaffes that have alienated everyone from the nation of China to the elderly and the infirm. He's a former Olympic sharpshooter who avows a deep interest in manga comics, one of Japan's most popular cultural exports. He has an affinity for gold necklaces.

Now, Taro Aso is being tapped by the Liberal Democratic Party, which has presided over Japan for most of the past half-century, as the one to restore its badly tarnished reputation at home - and offer reassurance abroad that the world's second-largest economy speaks with a steady voice at a time of global financial turmoil and pressing diplomatic concerns.

Mr. Aso easily walked away with the party's presidency Monday, garnering 351 of the 525 votes cast and trouncing four competitors. All but certain to become Japan's 13th prime minister in 19 years, pending approval by the LDP-controlled lower house of parliament Wednesday, he promises a sharp counterpoint to his lackluster predecessor. He may try to capitalize on that fresh tone - as well as an expected ratings bounce - by quickly calling a general election.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 02:15:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Japan residents calling! What do present polls show? Would the LDP have a chance in snap elections? Or would the opposition at last wash them away?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 03:50:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, I don't own a TV, or manage to regularly follow the English language print media here.  The start of this new semester has been a total disaster as we lost our science teacher, and have been subbing his classes until a replacement could be scrounged up.
by Zwackus on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 06:44:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pakistan blames US raids for hotel bombing - Asia, World - The Independent

The Pakistani President, Asif Ali Zardari, will plead with President George Bush today to change a policy which is being blamed for one of his country's worst terrorist atrocities.

"We hope the US will change policy because this is what is needed," said Pakistan's ambassador to the UK, Wajid Shamsul Hassan, after 53 people were killed and more than 250 injured in the bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad. He argued that the Bush administration's decision to allow cross-border incursions from Afghanistan into Pakistan, including by ground forces on at least one occasion, had been counterproductive "because they are not killing high-value targets, they are killing civilians".

Mr Zardari's talks with President Bush in New York, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, have been scheduled amid heightened security fears in the wake of the bombing.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 02:19:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian - Tariq Ali - Casualties of another war

In my view, however, the expansion of the war relates far more to the Bush administration's disastrous occupation in Afghanistan. It is hardly a secret that President Karzai's regime is becoming more isolated each passing day, as Taliban guerrillas move ever closer to Kabul.

When in doubt, escalate the war, is an old imperial motto. The strikes against Pakistan represent - like the decisions of President Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, to bomb and then invade Cambodia - a desperate bid to salvage a war that was never good, but has now gone badly wrong.



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 07:08:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Friction Infiltrates Sunni Patrols on Safer Iraqi Streets - NYTimes.com
BAGHDAD -- In Adhamiya, a neighborhood that only a year ago was among the most dangerous in Baghdad, the violence last week seemed almost negligible. A shootout near a checkpoint left two people dead on Sunday. Another man was killed on Monday by a small bomb placed under a car.

[...]

But the deaths quickly drew the attention of the American officers stationed in the neighborhood. Both outbursts involved members of the Awakening Councils, the citizen patrols paid by the United States to fight the insurgency.

And both were seen as a worrisome sign of the tension and infighting that have rippled through the Sunni-dominated Awakening groups in recent weeks, just as the American military plans to transfer control of about half the councils to the Shiite-led government.

[...]

But in Adhamiya and in some other areas of Iraq, the patrols, hailed by many as heroic for making the streets safer, have posed increasing problems. Commanders quarrel and jockey for power and territory. Finger-pointing and threats are common. Some residents complain that the men, not a few of them swaggering street toughs, use their power to intimidate people. Sometimes violence erupts.

... and you know they're gonna say there's no way anyone could have seen this coming.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 03:28:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
South African's Resignation Poses Risks for Zimbabwe Power-Sharing Deal - NYTimes.com

HARARE, Zimbabwe -- Thabo Mbeki's resignation as president of South Africa could hardly have come at a worse time for Zimbabwe, where he had just brokered a power-sharing deal that has now reached a pivotal -- and perilous -- moment, analysts say.

Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of Zimbabwe's opposition and the prime minister-designate, said Monday that the fall of Mr. Mbeki, the region's most influential politician, was a blow to Zimbabwe.

But he also said it was now incumbent on the African leaders who named Mr. Mbeki the mediator for Zimbabwe to ensure that the promise of the deal was fulfilled, despite the uncertainty about whether Mr. Mbeki would continue in the role.

"I think they're aware of their responsibility to complete the negotiations," said Mr. Tsvangirai, who spoke with serious understatement during an interview in the private study of his home here in the capital. The interview was Mr. Tsvangirai's first since Mr. Mbeki was effectively fired by his own party just days after triumphantly concluding the Zimbabwe agreement.

Mr. Tsvangirai, 56, and Zimbabwe's president, Robert Mugabe, 84, are at an impasse in the first crucial test of Mr. Mugabe's willingness to relinquish some of the complete control he has exercised during 28 years in power. Mr. Mugabe did not enter negotiations until July, after African election monitors concluded that a June runoff was not free or fair and African leaders insisted on talks. He said at the signing ceremony for the agreement that he was committed to it.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 03:32:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Afghan Official Kidnapped in Pakistan - NYTimes.com

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- As diplomatic missions beefed up their security in the aftermath of the Marriott Hotel bombing on Saturday, a senior Afghan diplomat was kidnapped Monday when militants fired on his car in the northwest city of Peshawar.

Five or six gunmen opened fire at the car of the diplomat, Afghanistan's consul general, as it passed through a wealthy neighborhood of Peshawar, according to the Afghan Foreign Ministry.

The driver was killed and the consul, Abdul Khaliq Farahi, was taken away, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, Sultan Ahmad Baheen, said. Mr. Farahi, who has served in Peshawar since 2001, was one of several candidates to become Afghanistan's next ambassador to Pakistan.

The kidnapping was yet another indication of the country's rising insecurity, which spread to the capital, Islamabad, with the Marriott bombing. The attack killed 53 people, including the Czech ambassador and two United States defense officials.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 03:33:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ANC deputy leader expected to be interim president of South Africa | World news | The Guardian

The South African government is poised to shift to the left after the ruling African National Congress indicated that its deputy leader, Kgalema Motlanthe, a prominent trade unionist, will become interim president following Thabo Mbeki's forced resignation.

The ANC will not publicly confirm Motlanthe's selection until parliament is formally informed and votes in the new president, for the remaining nine months of Mbeki's term, on Thursday.

But yesterday the ANC leader, Jacob Zuma, hinted that Motlanthe was the choice and party officials did not deny it.

"I am convinced, if given that responsibility, he would be equal to the task," Zuma told reporters.

However, it appeared that Mbeki has not given up the political wrangle with Zuma after a Johannesburg radio station reported that the outgoing president has attached his name to a legal petition seeking to overturn the high court ruling earlier this month that threw out a long-standing corruption case against Zuma and accused Mbeki of misusing the judicial system to keep his rival from power. It was that ruling that prompted the ANC leadership to vote to remove Mbeki.

Motlanthe, who was jailed for 10 years by the apartheid regime, played a leading role in ousting Mbeki and installing Zuma as ANC leader last year.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 03:49:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg: Democrats Work With Paulson on Rescue; Some Republicans Object
Members of President George W. Bush's own party are voicing their opposition to his financial rescue plan even as Democratic leaders narrow their differences with the administration.

Congressional leaders said the $700 billion measure is needed to calm market turmoil and they hope to complete talks and pass the measure as soon as this week. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson agreed with Democratic demands that Congress can create an oversight structure, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said.

Accord between Democrats and the Bush administration came as Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, said the proposal is ``neither workable nor comprehensive, despite its enormous price tag.'' Another Republican senator, Jim DeMint of South Carolina, said Paulson's plan ``could make matters worse by socializing an entire sector of the U.S. economy.''

Quick, someone mail Senator Shelby a copy of The New Industrial State.

(This is dated 6 hours ago, so it is more current than the stories last night where Frank's bolded claim was denied)

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 06:29:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was going to write a diary on this when I got home tonight, but Krugman beat me to it :-)
I've had more time to read the Dodd proposal -- and it is a big improvement over the Paulson plan. The key feature, I believe, is the equity participation: if Treasury buys assets, it gets warrants that can be converted into equity if the price of the purchased assets falls. This both guarantees against a pure bailout of the financial firms, and opens the door to a real infusion of capital, if that becomes necessary -- and I think it will.
Not only equity, but also possibly contingent debt if the assets are bought from unlisted companies.

I think there's still scope for a diary, if Jerome or Bonddad don't beat me to it :-)

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 09:05:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If yes, please with a glossary for those not proficient in (English) Financialese...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 09:25:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Will do, it's not the first time I write a diary and you tell me the jargon stomped you.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 09:32:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg.com: Latin America
Saying recent oil discoveries give Brazil new opportunities it can't squander, Lula outlined wide-ranging investment needs including $73 billion for energy projects, $70 billion for housing developing, $58 billion for shipbuilding and $25.8 billion for pulp and paper. He also detailed investments needed for improving infrastructure, building refineries and constructing a high-speed train.

Much of the program seems presents for business ($25.8 billion for pulp and paper!?), but the overall idea seems similar to that of the more hard-left Latin American countries. And note the high-speed railway! So on the US continent, both Argentina and Brazil might precede the US.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 09:49:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
McCain Loses His Head | George Will | Washington Post
"The queen had only one way of settling all difficulties, great or small. 'Off with his head!' she said without even looking around."

-- "Alice's Adventures in Wonderland"

Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama.

Channeling his inner Queen of Hearts, John McCain furiously, and apparently without even looking around at facts, said Chris Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, should be decapitated. This childish reflex provoked the Wall Street Journal to editorialize that "McCain untethered" -- disconnected from knowledge and principle -- had made a "false and deeply unfair" attack on Cox that was "unpresidential" and demonstrated that McCain "doesn't understand what's happening on Wall Street any better than Barack Obama does."

[...]

It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 10:27:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Myanmar Frees Political Prisoner - NYTimes.com

Myanmar's longest-serving political prisoner, journalist Win Tin, was freed on Tuesday after 19 years in jail and immediately vowed to continue his struggle against 46 years of unbroken military rule.

"I will keep fighting until the emergence of democracy in this country," he told reporters outside a friend's house in the former Burma's main city, Yangon. He was still wearing his light-blue prison clothes.

The ailing 79-year old was arrested in July 1989 and sentenced to jail for giving shelter to a girl thought to have received an illegal abortion.



Point n'est besoin d'espérer pour entreprendre, ni de réussir pour persévérer. - Charles le Téméraire
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 10:52:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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