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Considering the credit crisis has been rolling for more than a year and we have had several failures earlier, this sudden collapse of Lehman (and maybe some more soon?) seemed to surprise the market.

What if someone who really understood the problem (let's call him "JaP") had been made chief executive of one of these toxic banks and given a free mandate and sharp axe, could that have saved the bank?

Or were these failed banks condemned a year ago already, with no hope of survival what so ever?

If that is so, why didn't the market figure it out earlier? It's been a whole year after all.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:00:58 PM EST
I suspect it has to do with incremental access to accounting information as quarterly and annual reports are published. That's why it's taken a year since the crisis started.

But you can't say the collapse of Lehman has taken the market by surprise. Look at the 1-year price series. The stock started sliding in March from $50 and was at $15 at the start of the month when the following was going on:

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., under pressure to raise cash before reporting third-quarter financial results, hasn't yet struck a deal to sell a stake to Korea Development Bank because the two sides disagree on how much the U.S. firm is worth, KDB's chief executive officer said.

Negotiations have been ``difficult because of differences over price,'' Korea Development Bank CEO Min Euoo Sung said today.

Lehman CEO Richard Fuld is racing to raise capital and sell devalued real-estate assets before reporting results in two weeks. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict a loss of about $1.62 billion and say the New York-based firm may be forced to write down roughly $3.25 billion of assets. Lehman shares have plunged 75 percent this year.

(That's Bloomberg on Sept. 2) Note how the reporting of Q3 results plays a key role as a trigger.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:21:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting... But I wonder if Lehman (or Bear, or Merril...) would have made it if they had gotten a new CEO who understood this crisis, as early as a year ago.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:25:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They all knew what they were doing... Remember what the CEO of Citigroup said in July 2007?
When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing.
(my emphasis)

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:30:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That didn't seem to help the banks or their shareholders. But I guess we might have a classical agent-principal problem here: the people in charge don't care about the shareholders as long as they can make a quick, massive, buck, and as long as the music plays, they'll make that buck.

Shareholders or the stability of the financial system be damned!

Is there any way charges could be filed against them? As the crime "financial treason" doesn't exist, maybe they could be put in jail for ignoring their duty against the shareholders?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:34:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You still believe in shareholder sovereignty. You should read The New Industrial State.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:36:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I really should, as soon as I can wrap my mind around Calculus. And I should really be asleep now, damn stupid math in 7 hours...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:41:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com: Bank shares plummet in Europe (September 15 2008)
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are due to report third quarter results this week. Analysts at SocGen said: "Their earnings should represent a relatively easier barrier for the market to overcome, but we will then be in a vacuum of sorts as far as single names are concerned given that the full reporting season is still some four weeks away."


A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2008 at 06:01:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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