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The futures are taking a big hit.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:04:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Merril's board is meeting on BoA's $26 or $29 offer, according to the Journal.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:09:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
MER last traded above $26 on Tuesday and closet at $17 on Friday.

That the board is meeting on a Sunday night means that after Lehman fails Merrill can't be far behind.

Also, wasn't BofA trying to buy Lehman last week? What are they playing at?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the benefit for BofA? After Lehman surely even $17 is overpriced. $26 is an early Christmas for Merrill.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:23:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe BofA is killing the broker dealers on purpose. If BofA pulls out of this deal, Merrill is toast, like Lehman was toast after BofA pulled out of the previous deal to buy Lehman.

Does BofA hold put options or short positions on Merrill?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:26:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting idea.

Although I suppose beyond a certain point the whole system falls apart, and BofA wouldn't survive that either, even after vampirising the investment houses.

Does anyone know what BofA's culture is like?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:40:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe BofA is killing the broker dealers on purpose. If BofA pulls out of this deal, Merrill is toast, like Lehman was toast after BofA pulled out of the previous deal to buy Lehman.

BoA destroys Lehman AND gets Merrill Lynch, eliminating 2 competitors in one fell swoop.

Hmmmmm....

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 11:25:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Depends on the terms of the agreement they signed. These kind of things often have stiff pullout penalties. If this one is typical, if BoA pulls out, it ends up giving Merrill a nice big free cash infusion.
by MarekNYC on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 11:42:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
if this is true:

A deal would be all the more dramatic because Merrill, upon the arrival of Chief Executive John Thain, did more than many U.S. financial giants to insulate itself from the financial crisis that began last year. It raised large amounts of capital, purged itself of toxic assets and sold big equity stakes, such as its holding in financial-information giant Bloomberg. That Merrill has opted to sell itself thus underscores the severity of crisis.

Then why would Merrill cut and run (apart from making a 10+% profit with the reported $29 per share offering)? This seems like awfully short term thinking.

For BoA, it seems CEO Kenneth Lewis just plain likes to acquire:

"Why would Bank of America do this?" said analyst Nancy Bush at NAB Research LLC in Annandale, N.J. "Ken Lewis always likes to buy the biggest thing he can. So why not this? You are master of the universe, basically."

Both quotes taken from WSJ - "Bank of America Reaches Deal for Merrill"

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2008 at 12:29:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Then why would Merrill cut and run (apart from making a 10+% profit with the reported $29 per share offering)?
Perhaps Thain truly fears that that might be the best deal they will get going forward.  Refuse it and follow Lehman.  The fate of Morgan, Goldman and others may give some idea of the accuracy of his appraisal. Perhaps Chris Cox will re-institute the ban on the already illegal practice of selling shorts naked.  It may be that it was too late for even that to help Merrill.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2008 at 12:43:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
your "The Polish press on the Ossetian conflict".

A good post, thanks. I have no news sites from Poland in my favorites, nor any from the Batlic states, and only one in Kyiv. I need to work on that.

"It Can't Be Just About Us"
--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire

by papicek (papi_cek_at_hotmail_dot_com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2008 at 12:54:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That would be consistent with BoA tradition.  Didn't they pay way over the market price for CountryWide?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:29:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BoA is a dollar LIBOR panelist and FRB "core bank." ML is an FRB primary dealer. US Basel II implementation is still on the table, too. As the "modernized" financial regulatory structure takes shape, "synergy" in primary and secondary mortgage marketing will be quite valuable, I suppose. From that vantage --standardizing "innovative" products-- NPV does look cheap enough.

Besides, "the market" let off BoA easily, when management dumped, refused to honor, Countrywide's liabilities in June [?]. ML may expect equally favorable market treatment of its CDOs, now its book is being trimmed by LEH's bankruptcy.

BAC closed at a "healthy" $33 on Friday and (Aug 8-K) profit --despite significant FRB borrowing.

I dunno. I'm inclined to see this scene as a mutually opportunistic share swap to please both firms' preferred creditors. I don't see upside otherwise. I'm not convinced ML is motivated to deal "simply" because of write-down anxiety ...

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 09:20:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the benefit for BofA?

The benefit, dear TBG, is that BoA drives itself bankrupt and leaves me pissed off dealing with the FDIC.  A kind of farewell "Fuck You" from my grand ol' bank.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2008 at 08:24:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Does BofA have a spare $13bn to lose? (the difference between $17 and $29)

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2008 at 08:32:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it's all stock, so it's not as if they're spending Real Money™.

As I understand the deal is contingent on an analysis of Merrill's balance sheet. So if Merrill is an empty shell, BofA gets to walk away.

The plan seems to be that there's still some real value there, somewhere.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2008 at 08:37:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Presumably there's at least some real value left, but probably not $44bn worth.  Depends on how deep Merrill was in Big Shitpile.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2008 at 08:54:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Future prospects. (Huh?)

Also, big boss of BofA seems to enjoy shopping.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2008 at 10:15:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Does the Merrill Board really have any choice at this point but to say yes.  Now that the news has broken - what would be the repurcussions of not making a deal.  Catastrophe.
by Maryb2004 on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:15:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They're being offered a +50% premium over the last market quote!

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:22:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, no choice.  The Fed apparently forced them into it.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Sep 15th, 2008 at 08:24:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good riddance.

:: ::

...

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(Yes, yes, they're not all bad, you know what I mean.)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Sep 14th, 2008 at 07:16:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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