From the GOS/R2K poll: And McCain's net-favorable/unfavorable ratings are starting to sink too (now -1), while Obama's (+19) and Biden's (+13) have been pretty stable over the election cycle across all polls. McCain's have fallen from rough parity with Obama (+17) to negative territory in eight days.
Caribou Barbie's continue to sink (now -7); in fact, she's going to be in Bush territory if she doesn't pull it up soon.
A few things: The sudden sharp focus on the economy should have an impact too, and, again, that's going to impact the Rust Belt, where the economy sucks more than it does in (say) Virginia or Colorado.
I think the Wildlife ad may be having an effect in the Rust Belt, where I now find it's been running for perhaps a week or two. Notice the state polling has had larger shifts in Michigan, Penn, Ohio, and Indiana than elsewhere.
Obama's slaughtering McCain in Iowa. (We all saw that coming. Iowa never seemed to belong among the swing states.) New Mexico snapped back after the GOP convention, and now Obama's beginning to show signs of slaughtering McCain there, especially as he's running up the score ridiculously among Latinos.
Colorado seems to be snapping back into the typical modest Obama lead after showing a modest McCain lead following the conventions, and it may actually be moving into slaughter territory, if the InsiderAdvantage poll is to be believed (it showed a pretty sharp movement from +3 Obama to +10 Obama as the national polls were shifting, although I'm not a fan of InsiderAdvantage).
Virginia seems to have returned to its normal state of a tie when you throw out the garbage polling firms and stick with the big dogs. And North Carolina has returned to a tight race. (Tighter, actually. And for the first time Obama's hit the high-40s. I didn't expect that until undecideds began breaking -- and I didn't think he could get beyond about 47% on election day -- but he might actually be able to win it.) Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Obama is persuading people at the moment. McCain isn't.
Until we get some behind-the-numbers numbers ;-) we can't be sure how Obama is doing it. My guesses are:
Rasmussen South -- yes, South -- Carolina (June):
McCain 51 (48) Obama 45 (39)
That's a net of three points for Obama. McCain's over 50%, and I don't think we can get it, but this certainly bodes well for other contests and lends credibility to the tight race in North Carolina.
Ras's tracker is officially out of touch with his state polling. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
I'm of the opinion after each candidate has consolidated his base the remainder decide using non-party criteria. Of these the most persuasive is personal contacts and discussions. Put it this way: an undecided (or ignorant) person who communicates with an Obama supporter is more likely to support Obama and the more an undecided's social group is for Obama the more likely to move to Obama.
