Obama is persuading people at the moment. McCain isn't.
Until we get some behind-the-numbers numbers ;-) we can't be sure how Obama is doing it. My guesses are:
Rasmussen South -- yes, South -- Carolina (June):
McCain 51 (48) Obama 45 (39)
That's a net of three points for Obama. McCain's over 50%, and I don't think we can get it, but this certainly bodes well for other contests and lends credibility to the tight race in North Carolina.
Ras's tracker is officially out of touch with his state polling. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
I'm of the opinion after each candidate has consolidated his base the remainder decide using non-party criteria. Of these the most persuasive is personal contacts and discussions. Put it this way: an undecided (or ignorant) person who communicates with an Obama supporter is more likely to support Obama and the more an undecided's social group is for Obama the more likely to move to Obama.
