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Latest Gallup National Tracking Poll, conducted Aug 30 through Sept 1, has:

Obama 50
McCain 42

There's a 2% MOE so the full range is:

O 48 - 52%
M 40 - 44%

This should reflect a "Convention Bounce" and initial reaction to the Palin VP announcement.  Looking at the previous national polls this result is consistent over the last week.

by ATinNM on Tue Sep 2nd, 2008 at 01:35:11 PM EST
How this works out across the states, where the President is elected, remains to be seen.  The pollsters are waiting until after the GOP Convention before they resume polling.  When they do the states to watch are:
State - Pre-Convention Status

Colorado - McCain Leaning
Florida - McCain Leaning
Indiana - McCain Leaning
Iowa - Obama Leaning
Michigan - Obama Likely
Minnesota - Obama Likely
Nevada - McCain Leaning
New Mexico - Obama Likely
Ohio - Toss-Up
Pennsylvania - Obama Likely

And the always Bell Weather State of Missouri.  If Obama takes a lead here we need to start analyzing the potential for a Obama Landslide.

by ATinNM on Tue Sep 2nd, 2008 at 01:44:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Missouri and Florida are your landslide indicators.  North Carolina is your "It's getting ugly" indicator.

Georgia is your "Pack your shit, GOPers, we're shipping y'all to Alaska and cutting you from the Union" indicator.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Sep 2nd, 2008 at 01:53:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thought about adding North Carolina to the list, perhaps it should be.  
by ATinNM on Tue Sep 2nd, 2008 at 02:15:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Monday's poll releases should reflect the convention bounce.  This is the start of Palin reaction after the media vetting has begun.

The consensus of the polls seems to be Obama right at 49% and climbing.  McCain seems to be at 42-43% and sinking.  How much of that is noise, how much is outrage over Palin -- we don't know yet.  But I'd, of course, rather be on our side of those numbers.

If this Silver/Abramoff thing on her turns out to be a big deal, Palin's "reformer" presentation goes from floating in the toilet to being flushed.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Sep 2nd, 2008 at 01:51:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At what point can Palin or McCain say "thanks but no thanks" and get a new VP ? Right now she just seems to be an anchor dragging him down.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Sep 2nd, 2008 at 02:00:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
if he gets officially selected, can he at any point be replaced? or if he resigns can they choose again or does that make her the candidate?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Sep 2nd, 2008 at 02:07:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Convention doesn't have to elect her and once nominated she can resign, "For family reasons."  Don't know anything about the Rules and Regulations of the Republican Party once she has been voted as the VP nominee.  

AFAIK, there's never been a Recall of a VP tho' Eagleton resigned from the McGovern Campaign in the 70s.

by ATinNM on Tue Sep 2nd, 2008 at 02:20:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps they dont see any of her drawbacks as negatives, perhaps they see this as the way a politiccian should act.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Sep 2nd, 2008 at 02:30:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They've got their Convention to help turn things around.  But, right now, the GOP is broken, battered, disorganized, and confused.  An 6-8% lead, if it holds, translates into something like 350-400 EVs, a loss of 15-20 House Seats, and a loss of 10, or so, Senate seats.

Sucks to be them (he-he-he)

by ATinNM on Tue Sep 2nd, 2008 at 02:27:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nikolas Kozloff: McCain and the Telecoms

Making a Killing in Iraq

Even as McCain was lobbying hard for the Telecom industry in the late 1990s, the Arizona Senator worked overtime to build up the case for war in the Middle East.  McCain served as the "honorary co-chair" of the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq, a group which helped push for official government as well as public support for the invasion of Iraq after the 9/11 terror attacks.

In the aftermath of the invasion, the telecoms scrambled to get a piece of the action as Iraq was opened up for business.  Cellular giant Qualcomm managed to exert political influence over the Pentagon which in turn pressured the Coalition Provisional Authority to change an Iraqi police radio contract to favor Qualcomm's patented cellular technology.

What's more, the Pentagon hired MCI---the former World Com, which had declared bankruptcy amidst an accounting fraud scandal in July, 2002---to build a small wireless phone network in Iraq.  Incensed, Democratic Senator Ted Kennedy urged major federal agencies to stop doing business with bankrupt telecom giant MCI and explain why its record $9 billion accounting fraud should not disqualify the company from receiving lucrative government contracts.
 
As it turned out Kennedy was right to harbor suspicions about the dodgy company.  After the Coalition Provisional Authority issued MCI cell phones to U.S. personnel in Baghdad's Green Zone, problems arose.  Reportedly, cell phone owners received monthly bills as high as $10,000.  The individuals had never received bills, leaving the impression that the phone calls, which cost $1.25 a minute, were free.  The U.S. State Department subsequently decided to shut the phone calls down.



~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Sep 2nd, 2008 at 02:56:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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