Counting almost reached 90% now. SD and SNS are closer (30.46% vs. 29.29%), but by and large, it's the same picture as in the exit polling.

In the seat projection, SD+Zares+LDS is 29+9+5=43, so with the traditional support of the two minority reps, a minimum majority (45 out of 90). The damn far-righters are in the position of balance.

(I found in the meantime that LDS declared they won't coalition with the ruling SDS, hence I dare to count on left/right blocks.)

Also, on Borut Pahuk, I forgot to add the interesting detail that he is currently a MEP: that is, instead of the standard story of a 'used politician' being dumped on the EU, we have someone returning from there possibly on the top [as PM].

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 03:32:05 PM EST
DoDo:
Also, on Borut Pahuk, I forgot to add the interesting detail that he is currently a MEP: that is, instead of the standard story of a 'used politician' being dumped on the EU, we have someone returning from there possibly on the top [as PM].

So then we can have someone who goes from the parliament to the council. That is a bit interesting.

Btw, how is stalemates in the parliament (45-45) settled?

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 04:26:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I will have to look up (not today). One thing is certain: it is the right of the President to choose a PM candidate who shall attempt to put together a coalition, and there has been pre-election dispute over whether he should 'dare' to break 'tradition' and choose Pahuk in case SDS wins most votes ahead of SD - a dilemma that is no more, so it'll be Pahuk's turn.

I note we are at 99.88% counted, so I don't expect the seat distribution to change:

Minorities: 2

SD: 29
Zares: 9
LDS: 5
(left block: 43)

SLS+SMS: 5
DeSUS: 7
SDS: 28
(government block: 40)

SNS: 5

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 04:35:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just checked: the 2004-8 government majority was 49(+2), but Janša's government was laos approved by the 6 votes of SNS... so things could get interesting, like in the Czech Republic.

I also note that based on past coalitions, DeSUS (the pensioners' party) may swing to the left -- however, while writing the diary, I found an article about that party's leader declaring Pahuk unfit for office (for supposed lack of experience).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Sep 21st, 2008 at 04:43:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the preliminary result, the seat distribution remains the same. In percentages, the governing parties all do slightly better than in the exit poll:

  1. SD 30.50%
  2. SDS 29.32%
  3. Zarez 9.40%
  4. DeSUS 7.45%
  5. SNS 5.46%
  6. LDS 5.24%
  7. SLS+SMS 5.19%

Turnout was higher than last time, but still low... 62.16%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 02:32:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
OK? I looked up: the majority needed is 50%+1 (i.e. 46), so things are gonna be interesting. I guess the left block will try to convince DeSUS.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 03:28:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh. Apparently, the MPs of DeSUS already signalled their willingness. A left-of-center majority, then.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:32:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The future governing parties also announced that half of all ministers will be female. (Currently, the future smallest coalition member, theremains of LDS is the only party with a female leader.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:34:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The ORF article I quote downthread also quotes still-PM Janša laying his hopes in the postal ballots of Slovenians abroad -- up to 40,000 ballots... But a one-seat shift won't change the big picture.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Sep 22nd, 2008 at 04:44:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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