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If a reinflating of the house prices in the not-short term (in which I doubt, as I wrote) shall make banks whole, they need an equity stake in the houses.

No, the treasury buys the mortgages at par and then the banks hope that the house prices reinflate so that the Treasury doesn't have to exercise its option.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Sep 24th, 2008 at 04:50:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The question is what happens in the next few months. People will miss payments or make partial payments. This constitutes usually an event of default.
So what is the gov't going to do? Just ignore the missing payments? This payments after all are part of the value of the asset.
Wasn't it that the democrats wanted in such cases, that the principal is renegotiated at a court? In that case the loan would be simply cut. If later the house increases in value, why would the principal increase again?
An alternative would be, to just pack the missed payments as additional debt on the mortgage, which in the short term makes the homeowner even more under water, which is probably not, what the democrats have in mind, when they speak about relief for the overdebted.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Wed Sep 24th, 2008 at 06:00:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right, mortgage defaults lead to losses for the Treasury and therefore some of the contingent equity is realised. Krugman has quoted an estimate that maybe $800bn will be lost on subprime because of the housing slump and that under $500bn of losses has been recognised so far. So nationalisation seems like the eventual, inevitable outcome.

But under the Dodd plans the equity is realised over months or years, and Obama can be blamed for nationalising the banks :-)

Under the Paulson plan, the Tresury simply loses money.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Sep 24th, 2008 at 06:06:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But under the Dodd plans the equity is realised over months or years, and Obama can be blamed for nationalising the banks :-)

So if the economy doesn't run well the next 4 years, because of the mess that is, it will be blamed on Obama's socialism.
Maybe the Dodd plan isn't that bad, as there is a scapegoat to prevent anti-capitalistic spin. I only hope Obama is really elected and the mess doesn't fall McCain on the feet ;-)
Maybe I should change my signiture, but I think by now it are anyhow only the masochists left favouring McCain.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Wed Sep 24th, 2008 at 06:14:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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