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I'm skeptical of the fed-failure analysis.

If a repo-counterparty fails (just like Lehman did), the fed owns the crap for good and can mark it down at whatever pace it chooses to amortize it, in proven mark-to-model fashion. They could even have an operating loss, it's only a technicality (the Bank of Japan did a few years ago during the quantitative easing policy).

I believe more in the explanation that it saves the investment banks because assets will be bought at a higher price than what they have already marked down (so they have a profit in their accounts).

No-oversight provisions also allow Paulson & al. to run away to the bahamas with lots of cash. Paulson probably still owns lots of share from its alma mater Goldman Sachs.

Regarding inflationary measures, we are in it already: the fed was short of 50% of the money it lent to AIG, had to have the treasury issue new debt to put it on the FED asset side of balance sheet. They are now officially printing (in M1 aggregate), since one week.

But that won't stop the deflation in assets: their total value is not commensurable to M1, and won't be before years and years of printing. It is more a function of debt outstanding, which is a multiple of the fed balanche sheet by virtue of fractional reserves at the secondary banks. Now that risk aversion brings the multiplier down (reserve ratio go up de facto because of loss provisions), debt will deflate no matter the printing.

Well, at least in the beginning...
If printing overshoots, it will be Zimbabwe. But I think we are still many years away from that.

In the meantime, consumer products & gas (both mostly imported) will inflate strongly all along because of dollar exchange rate losses.

Pierre

by Pierre on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 10:49:54 AM EST
No-oversight provisions also allow Paulson & al. to run away to the bahamas with lots of cash. Paulson probably still owns lots of share from its alma mater Goldman Sachs.

I don't know where I've seen a figure of $100M...

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2008 at 06:07:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not exactly, he was forced to sell most of it, after his confirmation. But:

In addition to the 3.2 million shares, Paulson also owns restricted stock units representing 494,054 shares of common stock, all of which are vested and deliverable. Based on Goldman Sachs' closing price of $152.50 on Thursday, the restricted units are worth about $75 million.
He also owns options to purchase 680,474 shares of common stock, all of which are exercisable.


The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Wed Sep 24th, 2008 at 11:10:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can see how the paltry sums left were seen not to create any conflict of interests.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Sep 24th, 2008 at 12:25:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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