The latest poll has the CSU at 49%, which should be enough to scrape by without having to deal with the liberal FDP, who despite agreeing with a lot on the CSU, tend to marginally value privacy. Which would be uncomfortable for Beckstein. However, previous polls show some potential on the downside for the CSU. The range in which they have recently polled is between 47% and 50%.
In the previous election, Stoiber got them more than 60%.
The SPD is not capitalising on the decline of the CSU, it is polling only about 1% higher than its result in the last election. Which was the worst ever, at just under 20%. They'll need a shakeup after the election. It's incredible that Franz Maget is still their frontrunner after having led them through that disaster.
The Greens are polling slightly better, between 8 and 11 percent. In the last election, they got just under 8%. With a bit of luck, they should make it into the double digits. The FDP is winning more, passing the 5% hurdle after having polled less than 3% in the last election. They're now polling between 6 and 9 percent.
The Left party is on the brink of getting into the Landtag. It had been consistently polling at 4% in recent weeks, but gets over the 5% hurdle in the latest poll. The localist Freie Wähler (free voters) group, meanwhile, should get in this time around, as they are polling between 5 and 8 percent.
I think that the outcome will likely be the CSU coming in two or three seats short of an absolute majority, and teaming up either with the FDP or with the Freie Wähler. Beckstein will remain Minister President, but it will be understood within the CSU that he will be replaced before the next elections.
It is no fun, it the right-wing in Austria should win and to see that the left in Bavaria seems to fumbling too.
But lets face it, what's going to make a greater difference to most Germans in the long run - whether the CSU preserves its absolute majority in Bavaria or has to lead a coalition or whether Obama or McCain win the US presidency?
The Spiegel has other topics too - I usually get interesting links for the Salon from it.
And how are we supposed to influence the European politcs if we do not discuss them on a site that has the word European in it's title.
Germany is where one of Michael Moore's books topped the charts forever, where Stoiber was defeated because of Schröder's stance against the war, and a book of bushisms (Voll Daneben; trans = Completely Off the Mark?) also topped the charts. Even many business leaders, who normally would be considered conservative repugs, recognized this state of affairs.
i remain horrified by the whole election process, as the system falls apart. Ich stehe auf Palin (lit. i stand on Palin) for her brilliant analysis that passing the bailout plan is what's needed to undergird health care while creating the good globalization jobs not the bad competitive ones.
Germans have to be laughing at the intelligence of the amurkan electorate. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
If only I did not need sleep...
