Spills over to Europe and the rest of the world, resulting in all sorts of bad things.
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
Outside -wwwoooa - that is different. You can't be me, I'm taken
H/T Jesse, St Louis Fed (Adjusted Monetary Base, link to pdf chart) Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
And my prediction is still that the eurozone will weather a dollar crash a lot better than most people say or think. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
please,coudl you elaborate about Spain?
About france and germany I guess that US demand will nt be such a big shock? I guess yo have the numbers of german exports, but it seemed important to me: germany will get into recession if US demand halts, isn't it?
Maybe I am worng, but I see recession in europe too, maybe shorter in Germany, but not necessarily in Spain.
German exports to the US are not that significant compared to its GDP - and a lot of German exports are not that price sensitive (want a BMW? Here's the price. Or - want the gearbox for that wind turbine? Here's the waiting list and the price).
Again, the big secret is that the eurozone is much less dependent on the rest of the world than most people realise. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
who finances the Spanish debt if needed? that's my worry.. plus The surplus is gone.. so it wil be deficit.. and I am not sure any spanish government will go spending with credit.
We have first to deflate the house bubble and the spanish "ideology" of getting rich with a "pelotazo" and not long-term investment on research, technologies and energy... I am nto sure we will make the trasntion without easy money.
I am afraid Spain is not quite ready to cope with a lack of foreign credit despite having the most healthy banking system in the world (probably).
Spain - its fiscal balance is good, but its housing bubble was even crazier than the American one, and its got a really nasty current account deficit. A higher Euro and recession among those buying second homes/retirment homes will really not help.
Why do you ask?
I find a curious symmetry between the religous fanaticism and the Right-wing Anglo-economic fanaticism. These are mostly non-intersecting groups of people. Obviously they need each other politically but they are drawn to each other by their similar mental dynamic. They are both completely oblivious to learning from experience or data, however conclusive. They are both oblivous to the suffering of "others" and seem to even enjoy seeing suffereing on display as some sort of necessary aspect of their world view narrative. They both have a carefully nurtured sense of persecution, however ridiculously false the notion might be. They both base passionate present-day actions on vague contradictory "holy texts", which must never be subject to critique. At a deep psychic level both groups are motivated by deep and irrational fear.
I note these issues not to be casually pessimistic but rather to address the question of "Where we go from here?" Those of us in the reality based community tend to want to craft technically reasonable solutions to our problems. Reason should rule, eh? From a change perspective we may be mis-diagnosing the problem. The problem might better be framed as one of mental illness and how to treat it on a mass scale.
Those of us in the reality based community tend to want to craft technically reasonable solutions to our problems. Reason should rule, eh? From a change perspective we may be mis-diagnosing the problem.
Assuming those of us (like myself) who agree with your point of view ARE cruising in the reality zone, it seems that the two groups you identify actually want armageddon. Reasonable solutions are the enemy to those who have the "evil axis" or other narrative of "evil"-stuck in one ear and out the other. For the "sinful" human race to succeed in fixing our own screwups, without the intervention of a diety- calls into question the whole premise of these groups.
Vindication of humanism vs. "righteousness"- is doctrinal disaster.
My feeling is that these two groups are in reality one group, representing a facet of the human psyche that has been enormously amplified by a collection of forces that are very powerful- the world of junk media and stuff-addiction: threads of process that seem to be the current end-point of a capitalist consumer society. This subset of- ALL OF US- has blurry lines when you try to tease out the descriptors, but they run on fear and greed (they bought the bull), are intensely zero-sum in their world view, and are in panic. They are the market for catastrophe news. Unable to handle change on any real level-the Repubs in congress who see their base as the dingbat right and just sank the talks are a good example- they reflexively oppose.
This group is always with us, and has been dealt with successfully in the past many times (someone said that it may be time for the grownups to intervene) but now may be a lot harder in the US. The Repubs and PNAC-ers saw these folks as an asset politically and militarily, and have fertilized their fears and amplified their presence in both the voting population and in congress. Now they are slipping out of control in the US, I think. The success of all attempts at progressive change in the US may be in doubt as a result of their power.
Perhaps I'm too optimistic, but I don't see this brand of theological-authoritarian barbarity as ascendant in the Europe that I know--yet. Ratsinger is surely a step in that direction, as is Sarko- they would empower themselves by using this pack of dogs, as the Americans did.
Beware the day the dogs turn, boys.
Another issue: We have seen the formation of two visions of Empire- the Clintonian, "soft-power" based one, and the Neoconservative vision of raw military might. Yes, Uncle Milty and the Chicago Boys represent a simple but brutal theology that's very attractive to the authoritarian-evangelical folks. Leo's Loonies- the Straussian pistol-wavers represent the most militarist element-and they remain in real power, albeit more quietly. These differing visions of empire do overlap, but have cannibalized each other, I think. Both have in reality failed. Hence the need for change, and the panic on the rigid right.
The dominant vision now is the hard power one, even though it has failed. If the Iraqi oil were flowing into swing-state tanks, ---we'd kiss bush's ass, and Obama would be just another Senator. Pierre Bordieu and many others remind us just how hard it is to sell the chaotic, complex solutions that democracy and real social problem solving require. Cheap melodrama collects eyeballs so much better. If the shit hits the fan hard enough to really hurt, the great task of the grownups will be to prevent the idiots and the media from ginning up some convenient villain and declaring war.
Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
Eventually, of course, entrepreneurially minded people will begin establishing local farms again where they once flourished generations ago, and small factories will be built to provide key essentials, but all this will take time, and will have to cater to a market of people operating at a much lower standard of living. The banking sector, meanwhile, which is the proximate cause of this monumental disaster, won't mind any of this, for it will continue operating on the international stage, shifting its focus to lending money (no longer dollars, though), to growing economies in Asia and Latin America and eastern Europe. And this is what, in truth, the "rescue" of Wall Street is all about. It's not about saving Main Street, as Paulson claims. Main Street, under the bailout, is toast. It's about helping the banks and investment banks and insurance companies that brought on this crisis to ride it out in style, their astronomical losses bankrolled or absorbed by the American public, so that they can shift their operations overseas and continue with their rape and pillage of the global economy.
Eventually, of course, entrepreneurially minded people will begin establishing local farms again where they once flourished generations ago, and small factories will be built to provide key essentials, but all this will take time, and will have to cater to a market of people operating at a much lower standard of living.
The banking sector, meanwhile, which is the proximate cause of this monumental disaster, won't mind any of this, for it will continue operating on the international stage, shifting its focus to lending money (no longer dollars, though), to growing economies in Asia and Latin America and eastern Europe. And this is what, in truth, the "rescue" of Wall Street is all about.
It's not about saving Main Street, as Paulson claims. Main Street, under the bailout, is toast. It's about helping the banks and investment banks and insurance companies that brought on this crisis to ride it out in style, their astronomical losses bankrolled or absorbed by the American public, so that they can shift their operations overseas and continue with their rape and pillage of the global economy.
