please,coudl you elaborate about Spain?
About france and germany I guess that US demand will nt be such a big shock? I guess yo have the numbers of german exports, but it seemed important to me: germany will get into recession if US demand halts, isn't it?
Maybe I am worng, but I see recession in europe too, maybe shorter in Germany, but not necessarily in Spain.
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
German exports to the US are not that significant compared to its GDP - and a lot of German exports are not that price sensitive (want a BMW? Here's the price. Or - want the gearbox for that wind turbine? Here's the waiting list and the price).
Again, the big secret is that the eurozone is much less dependent on the rest of the world than most people realise. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
who finances the Spanish debt if needed? that's my worry.. plus The surplus is gone.. so it wil be deficit.. and I am not sure any spanish government will go spending with credit.
We have first to deflate the house bubble and the spanish "ideology" of getting rich with a "pelotazo" and not long-term investment on research, technologies and energy... I am nto sure we will make the trasntion without easy money.
I am afraid Spain is not quite ready to cope with a lack of foreign credit despite having the most healthy banking system in the world (probably).
Spain - its fiscal balance is good, but its housing bubble was even crazier than the American one, and its got a really nasty current account deficit. A higher Euro and recession among those buying second homes/retirment homes will really not help.
