So you claim.
And cheating means what, exactly? Theft? Fraud? Political leverage?
Plausible denyability? The bribe to your CEO buddy is really a pilot program to try out some new idea.
Incompetence? You confess, but claim to have learned a valuable lesson.
-- $E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
2. What receipts? The pilot program paid for your buddy's time and some resources and expertise that his company has available. It's a black hole unless you also expect every company to exactly account for every minute of computer time, every hour of employee time, every meeting etc. As I understand it, you're only postulating complete transparency at the banking level?
3. You're not in jail yet, you've only just been found out. And you go on TV and apologize, and your flock the people forgive you and refuse to prosecute ;) -- $E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
