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The Republicans will stall the bailout plan long enough for banks to have to report their third-quarter results (end of September!), and wheeeeee! will ensue.

Whatever happens after that, there will be bankruptcies. It makes a lot more sense to recapitalise the FDIC than even the Dodd bailout. The National Investment Bank idea is a good one, but I don't know how likely that is. Nothing much is likely to happen until Obama and the next Senate take office in January. Obama may pull a Roosevelt on the banking system.

On March 5, 1933, the day after Roosevelt's inauguration, he called a special session of Congress which instituted a mandatory four-day bank holiday. This act provided for the reopening of banks after federal inspectors had declared them to be financially secure.
I doubt that a repeat of the Depression will be allowed through inaction. We know a little better. A long recession is inevitable, and it is possible that a lot of businesses in the real economy will go bankrupt and will then have to be nationalised to keep them afloat to keep people employed.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Sep 26th, 2008 at 07:26:02 AM EST
Nothing much is likely to happen until Obama and the next Senate take office in January. Obama may pull a Roosevelt on the banking system.

So is it good that the crisis has really not come to a head till so late in the Bush presidency, so that him and his cronies havent really had to deal with it? this being as I understand it the last reporting period before the election, if it had happened six weeks further on then it could be sold as response to the election of Obama, if six weeks forward then Bush might have tried for real to fix it, and who knows where that would have lead.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Sep 26th, 2008 at 07:32:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I believe the crisis was going to come to a head at a quarter end. It started in June last year (2007Q2). The ECB injected lots of money for 2007Q3 while the Anglo chattering classes sniped at it for panicking, but then Northern Rock failed. Then we had 3 quarters of interventions by the Fed: 2007Q4 (end of year bridging loans by all central banks), 2008Q1 (Bear Stearns bailout) and 2008Q2 (admission that Fannie and Freddie might have to be rescued). Paulson and Bernanke were hoping to be able to repeat the operation 5 times (2008Q3 and Q4) to take them over to Obama's inauguration, but unfortunately for them the Fed managed to destroy its balance sheet in just 9 months, and so we had the events of the past 3 weeks.

So, you're right, politically for Bush 2008Q3 is the worst time for things to come to a head. Year-end could have been blamed on Obama being president elect spooking the markets, and Feb/March 2009 would have marred his first 100 days.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Sep 27th, 2008 at 05:28:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Obama may pull a Roosevelt on the banking system.

Meaning?

I hope Obama's intelligent enough to realize he's going to have to pull a Roosevelt on a lot more than just the banking system if he's elected.

The good news is that this has hit on Bush's watch, so it won't be blamed on Obama (even though the Reps will undoubtedly try to blame Dems, it's a losing argument).

Congress is not going to get anything done this late in an election year, especially not with a debate up tonight and McCain acting like he's been taking acid or something.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Sep 26th, 2008 at 08:28:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Meaning
On March 5, 1933, the day after Roosevelt's inauguration, he called a special session of Congress which instituted a mandatory four-day bank holiday. This act provided for the reopening of banks after federal inspectors had declared them to be financially secure.


A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Sep 26th, 2008 at 09:03:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've put up a diary on dKos about the idea of a Natioanl Investment Bank

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Sep 26th, 2008 at 09:37:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Could we have that here also please.

Perhaps this can be the start of 'Monetize America' to follow 'Energize America' ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Sep 26th, 2008 at 09:41:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wolfgang Münchau, in his German column as well argues the way to resuce/take over one or two banks to ensure credit for the US economy and let the others alone.

Doing nothing would be too damaging to the real economy in the short and medium run.

Rescuing the whole system (what any currently official plans are about) is too expensive for the gov't, and would not lead to the necessary shrinking of the oversized financial sector.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Fri Sep 26th, 2008 at 10:43:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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