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But with a haircut to reduce the gain to the level of US Treasuries of the same maturity, e.g. what they could have gained in a risk free investment, wouldn't even be a neutral, but still good for the bond holders.

It has turned out, that they got a risk premium, without that there was a risk, as now, as the risk strikes, there is a bail out.

So if everything goes fine, you get the risk premium, if there is a problem you get the same as if you never had taken a risk, this is still a free lunch out of the others pocket. And that is not even what happend or what is planned in the next bail out.

In case of F&F there was all the time only a small risk premium, because a gov't bail out, was pretty expected, but e.g. AIG bond holders (and CDO insurance buyers) did get a big free lunch.

In the end, there was already critisism, that the gov't wiped out preferred shares in F&F, as this would have been the best bet for recapitalisation of small banks across the US, but now nobody wants to sink his money into a potentially insolvent company. To keep at least this channel open, the bond holder bail out, might have been reasonable, even with the other companies, but the best thing would be transparency, which companies are fundamentally sound, and which aren't, and the hand out of free lunches is annoying.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 02:18:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It has turned out, that they got a risk premium, without that there was a risk, as now, as the risk strikes, there is a bail out.
Hence the justification for at least a 10% haircut to bond holders.  They would still make out better than stock holders.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 03:25:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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