Ras Obama 50 McCain 44
GOS/R2K Obama 50 McCain 43
The R2K poll also had Obama up 51/42 last night, which would be his best one-night total yet, if I'm not mistaken.
Gallup hasn't released results yet, but one of their guys went on MSNBC this morning with news that Obama's lead has expanded to 8 points. That, depending upon the Diageo/Hotline poll, puts Obama's average lead at 7 points for the day, up from 5.5 yesterday. Still gaining a bit over a point per day, and it might even be accelerating. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Palin started well but has flamed out badly dragging McCain down. Biden is beginning to be used well whilst on a short leash. McCain has begun to do badly now he's having to answer questions instead of just throw inanities at fans. Nobody liked his behaviour at the first debate where he looked annoyed all the time and has apparently done himself no favours in an interview with Stephanopolous this morning. He looked ridiculous last week and is beginning to have to paddle uphill just to stay in contact. Obama isn't doing great, but he doesn't have to. He just has to avoid potholes and is doing that with ease. He didn't have to land a blow on McCain, he just had to avoid leading with his chin. Easy...job done. keep to the Fen Causeway
We'll find out Tuesday when all polling will be post-debate. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
McCain's also hurting badly in the money fight. $84m is a lot of money for McCain. But the Obama base could conceivably raise that in a month, especially given how the growth in his donor base seems to be accelerating. Hell, Obama's going to spend half that much in Florida alone as they ramp it up for the final stretch.
And the RNC's going to see its donations dry up if Obama starts crippling McCain, which means the ground game -- what little of it they have (and what little they have is almost all in Florida for some reason) -- will collapse. Their senatorial and congressional committees are already in dire straits, financially. If the RNC's cashflow starts disappearing, they're going to be defenseless.
They just poured $750k into Indiana. Yes, Indiana. A state Bush won by twenty points.
You can see how things start piling on them in one state after another.
And I'd imagine Obama will likely re-enter Missouri and maybe even Georgia or Montana if things really start moving. At some point, if this continues, too little money could combine with being too spread out, and Obama would simply bleed them to death.
The pundits are, so far, spectacularly wrong. Obama has redrawn the map. And it's starting to show finally. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
One more bit of new CW: McCain gets two more shots at winning this, and it will be on territory that's bad for him. Of course expectations for McCain will be lower, but expectations management doesn't matter now. He needs to land a knock-out either in the second, or preferably in the third debate and needs to outperform Obama in both.
And you know, this is a guy who just is not interested at all in domestic issues. In McCain's case, that tends to show. Eehm... understatement. It tends to bleed through the screen.
P.S. John McCain: Stuntman. Or John 'Stunt' McCain. How does it sound? McCain's ability to do anything ground-changing outside of the debates should by all rights be dead now. News media = still bad, but not '04 swiftboat-era bad anymore. It helps that McCain has very bad taste in stunts.
John McCain, Stuntman - NJVoices: Jim Dooley
Senator McCain has just now pulled a political stunt, and is making no bones about it. Such it is, such is the man, such is the state of American politics on the big stage of political theater. We have something to marvel over for an hour. It is in the nature of stunts that they appeal not to reason but to our sense of wonder. Holy smoke, did you see that? What the .... was that? We are a people who have been made by Hollywood, comic books, and the boob tube, so grabbing our attention with a stunt is not as easy as it once was. We present ourselves lately as a different kind of rube. Generally speaking, it is reality that knocks us for the loop, though usually not for long and without much effect. Before long we are back to our usual entertainments. But to give McCain his due, he has pulled off a good one that featured plenty of risk. The question is for how long will it play.
I never know anymore. A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
Inside John McCain's campaign the expectation is growing that there will be a popularity boosting pre-election wedding in Alaska between Bristol Palin, 17, and Levi Johnston, 18, her schoolmate and father of her baby. "It would be fantastic," said a McCain insider. "You would have every TV camera there. The entire country would be watching. It would shut down the race for a week."
Ah the happy scene. As traditional an american scene as they come, authoritarianism and forced pregnancy all wrapped up in a small town megamedia bonanza, brought to you exclusively by the highest bid network live in your sitting room.....and now a word from our sponsor keep to the Fen Causeway
Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
And my fav:
I laughed so hard I nearly crapped in my pants.
Gold.... pure gold... The Dr. Evil poster is genius....
Many...so many...jokes.... Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
It helps that McCain hasvery bad taste in stunts.
No, Mig, I'm afraid this as real as it gets. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
But if they're doing the wedding, the poster is totally believable. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Tina Fey part-literally copied the stumbling lines in the latest Saturday Night Live skit (see this Clemons post). Very effective.
Only in a more professional and measured way, obviously.
I kid you not: Tina Fey used Palin's exact words. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
What can you say? Tina Fey is more credible as VP.
And if she doesn't want to be VP, she could always play one on TV.
Obama 50 (+1) McCain 42 (-2)
So the consensus among R2K, Gallup and Ras is now O50-43M. The RealClearPolitics average is now up to Obama +4.8, roughly in line with the CBS/NYT poll (50-44) and the Marist poll (49-44) of a few days ago.
My guess is that the regular polls would probably put the race at about a ten-point lead for Obama now. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
This is turning into a slaughter.
There should be an augean scale clearout keep to the Fen Causeway
Not Going to Happen.
Even the "augean scale clearout" isn't going to happen. The US is going to be dealing with Bushies in the Federal Bureaucracy for decades to come.
Most likely for the rest of my life. sigh
Still need ten Senate seats.
If we can hold the ones Nate has us winning, and then add Hagan, Franken, and Lunsford, we'll have made it to 60 if you count Lieberman. I kind of think Obama's going to at least get close enough in NC to allow Hagan to pull it off. And I kind of think Franken's going to pull it off in Minnesota.
Lunsford's race in Kentucky will be tough, but the capacity is there. He ought to hammer McConnell on the economy and Wall Street.
Need Musgrove to come through in Mississippi to get to 61. We already know from polling that it can be done, but it's a damned hard one.
Things are moving though. Watch the race in Georgia between Chambliss and Martin. I think the race tightening there, if it does, will be what tells you we've got a real shot at 60 seats (without Lieberman). I don't think we can win that seat, but a loss in the mid- to high-single digits probably means we get the above ones. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Second, if you look at the map on Pollster.com (here) and look at the solid McCain states (2 Senators per state) that translates into a bedrock of 35 GOP Senate seats with a potential maximum of 40.
There's very little slop available.
Kay Hagan, for example, shot up to a six-point lead in North Carolina while Obama began coming in at a tie or perhaps a slight lead. My guess is that Hagan may be approaching double digits now, and that Obama might -- might -- be seeing something akin to the Virginia numbers from last week.
Certainly if Obama wins the state, I expect Hagan to win handily. All he's really got to do is keep it close enough to the point that he can't drag on her at all. She might even help him get over the finish line. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
If it spreads out to a 10- or 12-point lead, I think we can start talking about a slaughter.
That said, a seven-point win is a pretty big win looking at the last twenty years or so. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
We need to start giving more emphasis on the state polls. Tis there where: rubber meet road.
Nate's got Obama above 80% to win now, with 325 EVs on average. Florida has flipped, along with Indiana. (That's actually 349 EVs.) North Carolina and Missouri are down to 1.1 and 1.7 leads for McCain, respectively.
Impossible not to love that the incredible trend has continued. Look at this damned thing:
They have:
Solid Dem: 229 EVs.
Battleground:
Colorado (9,) Florida (27,) Indiana (11,) Minnesota (10,) New Hampshire (3,) Nevada (5,) Ohio (20,) Pennsylvania (21,) Virginia (13) for a total of 119 EVs.
Need to tip:
Missouri (11) and W. Virginia (5) for 16.
Outside Chance:
Montana (3,) North Dakota (3,) and Nebraska 2nd Congressional (1) for 7.
Giving an estimated Upper Limit of 371 EVs as of today.
In theory Obama could take Texas (34) and Arizona (10) with a massive AA turnout and if the Latino vote swings hard for a grand total of 415 EVs. But that, as far as I can see is it.
It gets tougher after that, but that gets us to 286.
I think we're better than 50/50 to take Nevada. That brings us to 291.
The rest -- your guess is as good as mine. We'd need about 75% of the Latino vote to put Tejas in play and balance out the white vote. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Obama Win: 80.5% Obama Landslide: 25.54% McCain Win: 19.5%
Whoa nelly!
