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Well, Obama's rise has been going on for two weeks now, slowly and steadily, so I don't think we can really point to anything.  But you're right: McCain seems to be throwing gasoline on the fire.  The more he and Palin do crazy shit, the more Obama goes up.

McCain's also hurting badly in the money fight.  $84m is a lot of money for McCain.  But the Obama base could conceivably raise that in a month, especially given how the growth in his donor base seems to be accelerating.  Hell, Obama's going to spend half that much in Florida alone as they ramp it up for the final stretch.

And the RNC's going to see its donations dry up if Obama starts crippling McCain, which means the ground game -- what little of it they have (and what little they have is almost all in Florida for some reason) -- will collapse.  Their senatorial and congressional committees are already in dire straits, financially.  If the RNC's cashflow starts disappearing, they're going to be defenseless.

They just poured $750k into Indiana.  Yes, Indiana.  A state Bush won by twenty points.

You can see how things start piling on them in one state after another.

And I'd imagine Obama will likely re-enter Missouri and maybe even Georgia or Montana if things really start moving.  At some point, if this continues, too little money could combine with being too spread out, and Obama would simply bleed them to death.

The pundits are, so far, spectacularly wrong.  Obama has redrawn the map.  And it's starting to show finally.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 12:47:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course he's redrawn the map. FiveThirtyEight has the 'identical map to 2004' scenario at 0.0%. It's quite obvious that Obama - even in bad weeks - is doing better in a lot of states than Kerry. But also not as good in one or two (New Hampshire, mainly). The pundits are stupid.

One more bit of new CW: McCain gets two more shots at winning this, and it will be on territory that's bad for him. Of course expectations for McCain will be lower, but expectations management doesn't matter now. He needs to land a knock-out either in the second, or preferably in the third debate and needs to outperform Obama in both.

And you know, this is a guy who just is not interested at all in domestic issues. In McCain's case, that tends to show. Eehm... understatement. It tends to bleed through the screen.

P.S. John McCain: Stuntman. Or John 'Stunt' McCain. How does it sound? McCain's ability to do anything ground-changing outside of the debates should by all rights be dead now. News media = still bad, but not '04 swiftboat-era bad anymore. It helps that McCain has very bad taste in stunts.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 04:11:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eh, nothing new of course. Oldest reference I could find in 2 minutes:

John McCain, Stuntman - NJVoices: Jim Dooley

Senator McCain has just now pulled a political stunt, and is making no bones about it. Such it is, such is the man, such is the state of American politics on the big stage of political theater. We have something to marvel over for an hour.
It is in the nature of stunts that they appeal not to reason but to our sense of wonder. Holy smoke, did you see that? What the .... was that?
We are a people who have been made by Hollywood, comic books, and the boob tube, so grabbing our attention with a stunt is not as easy as it once was. We present ourselves lately as a different kind of rube. Generally speaking, it is reality that knocks us for the loop, though usually not for long and without much effect. Before long we are back to our usual entertainments. But to give McCain his due, he has pulled off a good one that featured plenty of risk. The question is for how long will it play.

That was after the Palin pick. And now for your Hollywood reference.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 05:24:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 05:53:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a joke, right?

I never know anymore.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 05:56:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obama Pictures and McCain Pictures
see Sarah Palin pictures

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:02:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Check this out.  You really can't make this shit up anymore:

Inside John McCain's campaign the expectation is growing that there will be a popularity boosting pre-election wedding in Alaska between Bristol Palin, 17, and Levi Johnston, 18, her schoolmate and father of her baby. "It would be fantastic," said a McCain insider. "You would have every TV camera there. The entire country would be watching. It would shut down the race for a week."


Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:09:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
cos everyone loves a shotgun wedding right. The bride looking radiant with her bump out front and the bridegroom, flanked by his minders, resplendent in hockey shirt, rhinestone jeans and sneakers shouting "look, I'm doing it okay, you don't have to push"

Ah the happy scene. As traditional an american scene as they come, authoritarianism and forced pregnancy all wrapped up in a small town megamedia bonanza, brought to you exclusively by the highest bid network live in your sitting room.....and now a word from our sponsor

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:18:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm constantly amazed at the kinds of things conservatives will say out loud.  That anyone in the campaign has even considered this is amazing, but to say it out loud is a special kind of stupid.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:21:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
is fit for a lawn sign

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:58:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Poster, but replace the "Doh! (blahblahblah)" with "A Special Kind of Stupid":



Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:13:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That poster is brutal.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:14:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Aunt Jemima bottles replacing the fighter jets had me unable to get any work done for probably a good half-hour.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:15:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Forgot one for poemless:



Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:23:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What does the original poster look like?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 29th, 2008 at 03:01:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The original has the words "Peace is Born of Wisdom" up in the middle, and McCain '08 at the bottom, along with the fighter jets at the top.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Sep 29th, 2008 at 07:27:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And that wasn't satirical??
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 29th, 2008 at 07:28:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]


A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 29th, 2008 at 07:31:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Surely you've noticed by now that one of the McCain campaign's goals is obviously to render political satire obsolete.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Sep 29th, 2008 at 08:50:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hang on, I got more.  This one's for ceebs (or was it afew?):

And my fav:



Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:20:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn that was good.

I laughed so hard I nearly crapped in my pants.

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 08:00:47 PM EST
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Holy gravy, you're damn close to killing me here Drew.... It's been a while since I hung limp across my desk with hysterical laughter.

Gold.... pure gold... The Dr. Evil poster is genius....

by Nomad on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 08:21:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The newest GOP 527 speaks out:

by ATinNM on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 11:57:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:48:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dare I ask: What if young Master Levi doesn't show up to the wedding?

Many...so many...jokes....

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:26:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
vice president, hunting accident, it almost writes itself dosn't it.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:53:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
nanne:
It helps that McCain hasvery bad taste in stunts.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:20:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What -- the quote at the bottom?

No, Mig, I'm afraid this as real as it gets.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:06:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, I had read the excerpts from Couric's interview. I mean the poster.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:41:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh.  Well, no, the poster is a joke.

But if they're doing the wedding, the poster is totally believable.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:55:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Have you watched the Katie Couric interview? It has to be seen to be believed. This is like some of the experiences I had in high school when I did not prepare my presentations. Except... worse.

Tina Fey part-literally copied the stumbling lines in the latest Saturday Night Live skit (see this Clemons post). Very effective.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:19:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The funniest - or possibly saddest - part is how clearly you can see Couric thinking 'ZOMG!!! Epic W! T! F!'

Only in a more professional and measured way, obviously.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:31:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Did you catch the SNL skit from last night?

I kid you not: Tina Fey used Palin's exact words.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 06:56:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I saw that.

What can you say? Tina Fey is more credible as VP.

And if she doesn't want to be VP, she could always play one on TV.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2008 at 07:05:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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