Obama 50 (+1) McCain 42 (-2)
So the consensus among R2K, Gallup and Ras is now O50-43M. The RealClearPolitics average is now up to Obama +4.8, roughly in line with the CBS/NYT poll (50-44) and the Marist poll (49-44) of a few days ago.
My guess is that the regular polls would probably put the race at about a ten-point lead for Obama now. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
This is turning into a slaughter.
There should be an augean scale clearout keep to the Fen Causeway
Not Going to Happen.
Even the "augean scale clearout" isn't going to happen. The US is going to be dealing with Bushies in the Federal Bureaucracy for decades to come.
Most likely for the rest of my life. sigh
Still need ten Senate seats.
If we can hold the ones Nate has us winning, and then add Hagan, Franken, and Lunsford, we'll have made it to 60 if you count Lieberman. I kind of think Obama's going to at least get close enough in NC to allow Hagan to pull it off. And I kind of think Franken's going to pull it off in Minnesota.
Lunsford's race in Kentucky will be tough, but the capacity is there. He ought to hammer McConnell on the economy and Wall Street.
Need Musgrove to come through in Mississippi to get to 61. We already know from polling that it can be done, but it's a damned hard one.
Things are moving though. Watch the race in Georgia between Chambliss and Martin. I think the race tightening there, if it does, will be what tells you we've got a real shot at 60 seats (without Lieberman). I don't think we can win that seat, but a loss in the mid- to high-single digits probably means we get the above ones. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Second, if you look at the map on Pollster.com (here) and look at the solid McCain states (2 Senators per state) that translates into a bedrock of 35 GOP Senate seats with a potential maximum of 40.
There's very little slop available.
Kay Hagan, for example, shot up to a six-point lead in North Carolina while Obama began coming in at a tie or perhaps a slight lead. My guess is that Hagan may be approaching double digits now, and that Obama might -- might -- be seeing something akin to the Virginia numbers from last week.
Certainly if Obama wins the state, I expect Hagan to win handily. All he's really got to do is keep it close enough to the point that he can't drag on her at all. She might even help him get over the finish line. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
If it spreads out to a 10- or 12-point lead, I think we can start talking about a slaughter.
That said, a seven-point win is a pretty big win looking at the last twenty years or so. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
We need to start giving more emphasis on the state polls. Tis there where: rubber meet road.
Nate's got Obama above 80% to win now, with 325 EVs on average. Florida has flipped, along with Indiana. (That's actually 349 EVs.) North Carolina and Missouri are down to 1.1 and 1.7 leads for McCain, respectively.
Impossible not to love that the incredible trend has continued. Look at this damned thing:
Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
They have:
Solid Dem: 229 EVs.
Battleground:
Colorado (9,) Florida (27,) Indiana (11,) Minnesota (10,) New Hampshire (3,) Nevada (5,) Ohio (20,) Pennsylvania (21,) Virginia (13) for a total of 119 EVs.
Need to tip:
Missouri (11) and W. Virginia (5) for 16.
Outside Chance:
Montana (3,) North Dakota (3,) and Nebraska 2nd Congressional (1) for 7.
Giving an estimated Upper Limit of 371 EVs as of today.
In theory Obama could take Texas (34) and Arizona (10) with a massive AA turnout and if the Latino vote swings hard for a grand total of 415 EVs. But that, as far as I can see is it.
It gets tougher after that, but that gets us to 286.
I think we're better than 50/50 to take Nevada. That brings us to 291.
The rest -- your guess is as good as mine. We'd need about 75% of the Latino vote to put Tejas in play and balance out the white vote. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
